《大行報告》美銀證券:擔保助內房發債或可阻止問題惡化 銷售復甦仍然是開發商出路
美銀證券發表報告指,昨日(16日)有報道稱內地將為具質素的內房發展商安排國有增信機構擔保助發債,包括龍湖(00960.HK)、碧桂園(02007.HK)及旭輝(00884.HK),行業股份及債券價格因而於昨日大幅上升。
美銀表示,有關計劃若落實,幾乎類似於政府直接向民營發展商提供貸款,該行認為此舉是有必要,因多數發展商的其他流動性來源已枯竭。雖然有關發行規模較小(龍湖為15億元人民幣的三年期和五年期票據),但此表明內地決策者現時更願意採取果斷措施,以確保優質的民營發展商不會陷入嚴重流動性問題。
不過,美銀相信此方法不能解決內地房地產市場的危機,尤其是停供房貸方面,但或會阻止問題惡化。而發展商最終的出路仍然是銷售恢復(取決於經濟復甦),因銷售如果持續低迷,目前未清楚決策者是否會不斷向民營發展商提供幫助。
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