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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調中銀香港(02388.HK)目標價至34.9元 降港交所(00388.HK)目標價至368元
匯豐研究發表研報指,貨幣流通速度正在下降,上半年香港銀行業存款按年比較僅增長0.4%,其中2月至5月存款出現負增長,考慮到股市與存款增長在歷史數據息息相關,以及金管局捍衛聯繫匯率的持續干預,認為存款增長壓力可能會延續到今年第三季。 該行解釋,由於美元兌港元匯率差距非常大,加上疫情下本港及內地貸款需求疲軟,導致金融機構將資產重新分配到非貸款類別,預期銀行淨息差將持續擴大,銀行亦可能通過將更多資產配置給非貸款外匯資產來加速擴張。而對整個銀行業而言,資金向非貸款資產轉移可能會降低貨幣乘數。 至於對更廣泛的股票市場,該行指出,流動性減少可能導致日均成交走弱,第三季至今股市日均交易量已跌至1,020億元,較首季的1,460億元及次季的1,300億元回落。 匯豐研究維持對香港銀行業的正面看法,看好中銀香港(02388.HK),但將中銀香港及港交所(00388.HK)目標價分別由35.5元及405元,下調至34.9元及368元,2022至2024年業績預測下調1%至5.9%,以反映資產增長放緩、手續費收入增長疲軟及日均成交量下降,評級分別為「買入」及「持有」。
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