美股能否延續反彈？
華爾街對美股是否能延續今年最長連漲勢頭，還是將在另一個虛假黎明後滑落的看法上存在分歧。
大摩表示，6月以來的大幅反彈只是熊市的暫停，隨着企業業績減弱、利率上升和經濟放緩，股市將於今年下半年開始下滑。但小摩表示，這輪反彈已將納斯達克100指數推高了20%以上，這輪漲勢可能會延續至今年年底。
這種分裂的觀點反映了美股市場在面對強大的交叉趨勢時對於前景的高度不確定性。通脹率有從峯值回落的跡象，並且企業一直在強勢提薪，這對股市來說都是好兆頭。但與此同時，美聯儲官員仍堅持鷹派加息直至通脹得到控制，這有可能使經濟陷入衰退。
小摩是今年少數幾個看漲美股的機構之一，他們表示，即使股市出現了1970年以來最嚴重的上半年暴跌，對利率敏感的增長型股票將推動下半年股市繼續上漲。小摩表示，任何回到價值股的轉變都可能要等到美國經濟真正出現增長見底的跡象，並預計這將在第四季度出現。
自今年6月中旬以來，這種樂觀情緒在投資者中變得更加普遍，因爲二季報比預期要好得多，而且數據顯示失控的通脹略有下降。截至上週，標普500指數已連續第四周上漲，這是自去年11月以來最長的連漲。
大摩策略師Michael J. Wilson是美股最有發言權的熊市論者之一，他表示現在的反彈已經過頭了，並提到了經濟衰退、貨幣緊縮和企業利潤前景所帶來的風險。"今天的宏觀、政策和盈利狀況對股市十分不利，未來幾個月令人失望的財報很可能會引發股市新一輪的下跌。"
同時，股市還面臨着另一個障礙——企業回購速度的放緩。高盛認爲，儘管2022年的回購授權已躍升至8560億美元，但二季度股票回購的實際支出與一季度相比下降了21%。不過，以David J. Kostin爲首的策略師表示，明年生效的1%消費稅爲2022年剩餘時間內的企業回購創造了 "適度的上升空間 "。
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