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光伏行業專題研 究:鈣鈦礦電池:“黑科技”見曙光
【投資要點】鈣鈦礦是一種薄膜電池技術路線,低成本、高效率等優勢突出,有望成為下一代光伏技術路線。鈣鈦礦生產涉及PVD、塗布、激光、封裝等設備,以及TCO 玻璃、電極等材料,產業化瓶頸在於解決結晶工藝和批量供應的工程問題。我們認為,通過優化配方工藝和封裝技術解決穩定性難題後,鈣鈦礦是下一個光伏產業α,有望出現類似於顆粒硅和磷酸鐵鋰對替代路線的超越:性價比:光伏產業需要降本促進發展,而晶硅路線即將觸及理論效率上限,原材料供需錯配、價格暴漲短期難解。鈣鈦礦組件投資成本較晶硅低,100MW 組件成本低於1 元/W,未來擴大至GW 級產線後,成本可降至0.1 美元/W,性價比驅動商業化加速。技術成熟度:一方面轉換效率提升較快,截至2022 年7 月實驗室轉換率已提升至31.3%,龍頭企業百MW 組件運行效率接近16%,中期量產效率可達25%,疊層電池亦能有望提高轉換效率。另一方面,鈣鈦礦工藝流程和工程改進週期短,技術進步快,量產和使用壽命短等問題有望得到解決,2022 年6 月《科學》雜誌報道鈣鈦礦太陽能電池設備可在超過行業標準的情況下運行大約30 年。應用場景:BIPV、電動汽車車頂材料等應用場景或為突破口。鈣鈦礦運用場景較晶硅路線更為廣泛,或成為未來BIPV、電動汽車車頂發電領域的主流材料,預計22-25 年BIPV 滲透率逐步提升。競爭格局:國內企業在實驗室和量產方面均領先全球,已有20 餘家企業在鈣鈦礦方面進行佈局,主要集中在上游材料、中游電池及設備以及通用技術類等領域。同時,新能源企業也積極申請相關專利,累積相關專利數量已超過4000 件。海外FirstSolar 和板硝子等企業在鈣鈦礦光伏電池設備和材料領域也佔據一席之地。【配置建議】建議關注:具備專利和研發技術佈局的鈣鈦礦龍頭公司。纖納光電(鈣鈦礦相關專利百餘項,鈣鈦礦商用組件α已交付)。協鑫光電(鈣鈦礦組件實用化產品獲T? V 商業認證)。捷佳偉創(300724.SZ,光伏設備商,鈣鈦礦整線設備進入研發階段)。隆基綠能(601012.SH,單晶硅片和組件龍頭,鈣鈦礦相關專利20 項)。寧德時代(300750.SZ,鈣鈦礦光伏電池研究順利,正在搭建中試線)。金晶科技(600586.SH,鈣鈦礦電池TCO 玻璃國產龍頭)。【風險提示】鈣鈦礦電池技術突破不及預期、產業化進程緩慢出現其他技術路線
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