通胀略微消退美股连涨四周 ，社融逊于预期港股震荡走弱
Jaco 袁永傑/uSMART投資顧問總監畢業於諾桑比亞大學，主修國際商業管理擁有10年港股、美股研究及操作經驗，擅長利用各種分析方式和宏觀經濟環境分析對股票及市場作出預測
01
上週五美股受7月進口物價指數亦按月下跌較市場預期的1%跌幅更多，加上早前CPI低過市場預期和7月PPI按月錄得跌幅，令市場更有信心確定通脹或已見頂，美股3大指數上升高開高走，道指升424點，收報33761點；標指升72點，收報4280點；納指升267點，收報13047點。目前美國市場充斥一遍樂觀的氣氛，資金亦不斷流，例如: 截至8月10日，EPFR Global數據顯示，截至8月10日當週，美國股市的資金流入達到110億美元，創下8周以來的新高、著名對衝基金索羅斯基金管理在美國大型科技股最近幾周走高前加倉，涉及股份包括亞馬遜、Alphabet及Salesforce外媒報導和Tesla暫停接受美國及加拿大客戶對Model 3長續航版的訂單，因現有訂單已積壓至明年等。除了美國7月進口物價指數按月爲負1.4%，預期爲負1%，爲2020年4月以來最大跌幅這消息爲重大利好外，美國8月密歇根大學消費者信心指數初值報55.1，遠超預期的52.5，前值爲51.5亦爲市場注入很大上升信心。總括而言，美股長期趨勢仍然向下，而目前美股仍在過度超賣的反彈中，不過目前已經到了阻力位置，反彈是隨時可以停止，繼續反彈的話潛在升幅也不會太多。
02
港股方面，今天未能繼承上週五美股走勢，港股今天走勢偏軟主要是由於幾大原因， 例如: 多家國企在週五宣佈擬將在美國預託證券退市，當中包括中石油 、中石化 、上石化 、國壽及中鋁 ，預計生效日期爲9月初、人民銀行公佈，7月，人民幣貸款增加6790億元社會融資規模增量爲7561億元，均少於市場預期、內地7月三頭馬車數據全遜預期，中國7月份規模以上工業增加值增長3.8%，預期4.3%、社會消費品零售總額3.59萬億元人民幣，按年2.7%，預期5%、首七個月，固定資產投資31.98萬億元人民幣，按年增長5.7%，預期6.2%、央視財經報道報導手機芯片供過於求、部分芯片售價僅爲去年十分之一等等。恆生指數跌134點，報20040點，成交737億元。總括而言，港股短線仍有一些反彈，大方向仍然是向下，不過接下來是MSCI和恆指成份股調整，按照最近記錄，都是最後階段會炒高讓被動基金接盤。
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