中信建投:LPR利率料將跟隨MLF利率調降 降息窗口期還未關閉
格隆匯8月16日丨中信建投分析貨幣政策走向指出,LPR利率料將跟隨MLF利率調降。在LPR錨定MLF利率下,MLF利率下降將有效引導LPR報價降低。8月LPR 1年期報價利率預計將再次自主調降,體現出銀行系統支持實體經濟、降低融資成本、支持房地產的努力,這次MLF、OMO利率調降爲LPR繼續調降提供契機。後續降息方面,還要繼續觀察,但降息窗口期還未關閉。此次MLF、OMO調降10BP,明顯超市場預期。後續降息預期可能降低,但當下穩增長、降成本、防風險,支持實體經濟的壓力仍大,供需和預期轉弱的局面還沒有明顯改變,因此四季度若經濟仍有下行壓力,還有降息可能。
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