《大行報告》花旗:不排除內地本月降5年期LPR利率 料每降5基點將令內銀明年盈利減0.5%
花旗發表報告表示,中國7月新增貸款僅6,790億人民幣,按年跌37%(按月跌76%),信貸增長的「量」與「質」均遜市場預期。該行指,內地購房者的情緒低落,原因是擔心開發商違約和房地產項目延遲交付的風險升級,從而打擊企業和抵押貸款需求;以及缺乏「真正」信貸需求,因爲企業的資本支出擴張步伐在一定程度上受到熱浪和上海及深圳偶爾爆發的新冠疫情的阻礙。
該行認爲,由於內地通脹擔憂和人民幣貶值壓力,今年第三季度末邊際貨幣政策收緊的可能性會上升,因此預計一年貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調的可能性很小。雖然如此,該行不排除今年8月下調5年LPR的可能性,因考慮到新抵押貸款定價和現有抵押貸款定價已經引發了一波抵押貸款提前還款和再融資的浪潮;按揭貸款利率與5年期LPR之間的利差已經縮小至17個基點,表明未來降低按揭貸款利率的更可行的方法是降低5年期LPR,
假設內地5年LPR下調5個基點,花旗料對內銀明年的盈利預測可能下降0.5%,其中建行(00939.HK)和農行(01288.HK)在其所覆蓋研究的內銀股中會錄較明顯的潛在損失。
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