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《大行報告》富瑞:亞洲集裝箱航企收入或已見頂 料跨太平洋即期運價將低於最初簽訂合同價格
部份航運股今早受壓,東方海外(00316.HK)盤中低見231.6元一度下挫12.6%,最新報233.8元跌11.8%,太航(02343.HK)走低2.3%,中遠海控(01919.HK)股價跌3.7%。 富瑞發表亞太區航運業報告表示,集裝箱和乾散貨運費繼續跑輸油輪,市場關注集裝箱收入是否已見頂,從7月份台灣地區三分之二的業界數據已反映相關情況,並指中國出口集裝箱運價指數(CCFI)今年8月以來已低於7月水平,而上海出口集裝箱運價指數(SCFI)每週下降速度加快,這可能導致固定合同價格需重新下調,該行估計跨太平洋即期運價將低於最初簽訂的合同價格。 該行指,雖然台灣地區集裝箱航運公司的7月收入按年增長29%,但按月下降0.7%。然而,收入有所不同,長榮海運收入每月增長4.1%,而萬海航運和陽明海運的收入各下降5.5%及5.1%。差異可能是由於長榮海運的跨太平洋運力較高,這反映了跨太平洋較高年度合同對整個月的影響。然而,該行估計月度集裝箱收入可能已經見頂,因為不同航線的即期費率較低,中國出口集裝箱運價指數(CCFI)8月以來均平均按月下降3.7%。 鑑於其跨太平洋業務比重各異,全球營運商之間的收入可能會有所不同。跨太平洋合約價格將至關重要,因為CCFI 的美國西部基本港(USWC)和美國東部基本港(USEC)指數分別為按周升0.5%和下跌0.8%,但計入等效即期匯率影響後各按周下降5.3%及2.4%。 鑑於即期匯率低於合約價格,該行預計跨太平洋CCFI指數將下跌,這在歷史上會導致合約價格被調低。
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