韋爾股份(603501):業績不及預期 關注庫存消化、新產品放量
1H22 業績低於我們預期 公司公佈1H22 業績:收入110.72 億元,同比下降11.06%;歸母淨利潤22.69 億元,同比增長1.14%,低於我們預期,主要原因是手機行業需求疲軟。我們認為,公司持續穩定加大研發投入,產品升級及新產品放量推動公司未來業績長期增長。我們維持跑贏行業評級,下調目標價16.5%至165 元。 發展趨勢 2Q22 歸母淨利潤13.7 億元,扣非後淨利潤5.49 億元,同比下滑46.26%,我們認為主要原因是:1)上半年全球手機銷量疲軟,終端廠商處於去庫存週期,公司2Q22 收入同比下滑11.3%;2)收入同比下滑情況下,2Q22 單季度研發費用達到歷史最高的6.33 億元,同比增長17.8%。 3)2Q22 公司獲得非經常性損益8.24 億元,主要由於報吿期內公司對在集團內未能最大化其發展空間的射頻業務及通信芯片業務予以剝離,聚焦主力業務。 2Q22 存貨環比增21%,關注3Q/4Q 庫存消化情況。我們看到儘管手機終端去庫存已取得一定進展,但由於製造週期長、代工產能較為緊缺等原因,芯片公司高庫存延續到2Q22 是行業內普遍現象,我們認為3Q22 開始手機CIS 芯片將以去庫存為主旋律,高像素芯片因為壽命較短價格可能短期承壓,但代工端產能鬆動、成本下行,結合公司供應鏈逐步從中國台灣轉移至大陸,能夠抵銷產品價格下行的部分影響。我們建議關注3Q/4Q 公司存貨消化情況,並認為2023 年開始量價有望逐步修復。 展望未來,我們認為公司長期成長動能充足:2023 年手機CIS 行業景氣度有望回升,公司加緊佈局的A0B、50E 等手機高階CIS 產品將助力明年手機收入復甦。車規CIS、升級版TDDI、OLED 顯示驅動等業務在今年高速增長的同時亦成為明年的主要驅動力。此外,公司計劃今年下半年送樣多款車載新產品,結合1-2 年左右的驗證週期,我們預計LCOS、MCU 等車規新品有望2024 年放量。 盈利預測與估值 由於消費電子疲軟,我們下調2022/2023 年營收16.1%/8.2%至243.62/326.90 億元,下調淨利潤19.3%/12.5%至44.40 億元/61.63 億元。 當前股價對應2022/2023 年31.7 倍/22.9 倍市盈率。我們維持跑贏行業評級,下調目標價16.5%至165 元,對應44.0 倍2022 年市盈率和31.7 倍2023 年市盈率,較當前股價有38.7%的上行空間。 風險 疫情影響手機、汽車需求,新產品研發不及預期、客户導入不及預期。
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