《大行報告》瑞信上調國泰(00293.HK)今年每股盈測9% 維持「跑贏大市」評級
瑞信發表研究報告指,在疫情影響下國泰航空(00293.HK)上半年錄得虧損屬預料之內,但自5月起防疫措施放寬以來,公司出現較佳的復甦,經營現金流已轉為正數。
由於運力尚未恢復正常,瑞信預計短期內國泰乘客收益率料高企。而在運力恢復、宏觀經濟及異常高基數的眾多因素下,估計貨運收益率未必可實現太大增長,但下半年季節性高峰期仍然可期,因此相信下半年業績將有所好轉。
該行指,撇除燃料成本,國泰營運支出大致為疫情之前水平約44%,或按年跌5%,歸因於維護和員工人數減少,預期將停放機隊調回香港,以及在未來兩年內重新聘請員工將帶來成本提升,但預期增幅不會像重新部署運力那樣高。
瑞信又預期,高燃油價格可能為國泰帶來更大經營壓力,但相信燃油對沖應該有助於減輕影響,維持「跑贏大市」評級及目標價10.5元。憧憬隔離措施放寬,該行預料7月份客運運力可恢復15%左右水平,根據成本估算將今年每股盈利預測上調9%,預期進一步放寬機組人員檢疫限制及通關時間表為主要催化劑。
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