古越龍山(600059)：疫情衝擊短期銷量 關注逐季改善趨勢
格隆匯 08-11 00:00
1H22 業績略低於我們預期公司1H22 收入7.85 億元，同比+2.7%；淨利潤0.90 億元，同比+2.0%；其中2Q22 收入2.21 億元，同比-16.2%，淨利潤0.21 億元，同比-21.8%。公司業績略低於我們預期，主要由於上海等地的疫情反覆對黃酒銷售影響較大。發展趨勢2Q22 疫情對華東核心市場衝擊較大，銷量及產品結構升級進程受到影響，成本端原料成本下行與提價傳導共振下，毛利率有扭轉勢頭。公司核心市場中上海受疫情衝擊最大（2Q21 營收佔比12%）。2Q22 上海營收同比-80.2%，江蘇（2Q21 營收佔比11%）及浙江（2Q21 營收佔比31%）亦受到一定程度衝擊，分別同比-21%/-5%。疫情導致黃酒消費場景缺失以及中高檔消費力受損，2Q22 中高檔酒營收同比-27.6%。受益於公司4Q21 提價舉措及包材成本下降趨勢，2Q22 公司毛利率為39.2%，同比+2.0ppt，成本端壓力有放緩趨勢。公司逆勢加大營銷費用，持續發力培育黃酒消費羣體，塑造高端黃酒品牌形象。公司上半年逆勢加大費用投放，1H22 銷售費用率同增0.3ppt，其中廣吿及業務宣傳費用同比+4.8%，多維度全面推廣古越龍山、國釀1959 系列等高檔產品，並加強消費者培育。公司全國性佈局持續推進，建議密切關注疫情後復甦進程。公司在上半年持續推進全國化佈局，除投放廣吿及宣傳外，公司在核心市場內持續推進紹興黃酒產業園建設，做深黃酒文化內涵，據公司公吿，一期工程計劃在年底前建成；同時今年年初北方酒庫對外開放，且公司在全國各地加速開設品鑑館，持續深耕江浙滬外的國內市場。我們認為公司持續性投入下，黃酒品類有望取得區域性突破，建議密切關注疫情後的復甦進程。盈利預測與估值考慮到疫情帶來的影響略超我們預期，我們下調2022/2023 年盈利預測3.5/9.7%至2.34/2.72 億元；同時考慮到消費復甦趨勢明確，維持目標價10.40 元，對應2022/23 年40.4/34.9x P/E，當前股價交易於37.6/32.4x2022/23 年P/E，較當前股價有7.5%上行空間，維持中性評級。風險疫情反覆影響酒類消費場景；其他酒種激進投放，繼續搶奪黃酒市場份額；高端競爭加劇；食品安全。
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