《大行報告》瑞銀料未來數年內地專才流入支持置業需求 明年港樓市基本面或輕微改善
行政會議召集人葉劉淑儀周二(9日)建議政府考慮免除內地買家在港置業的雙倍印花稅;不過,葉太隨後表示,有關建議是新民黨的意見。財政司司長辦公室發言人亦回應稱,就有報道指政府考慮放寬物業印花稅,政府澄清,沒有相關討論,並明確指出沒有任何相關計劃。
瑞銀發表研究報告,指如果撤銷任何樓市「辣稅」,對本港地產商來說將是正面催化劑;因內地買家在2011年第四季佔本港住宅成交量、值分別14%及24%,但2021年第四季量、值分別僅佔10%及14%。在該行覆蓋發展商中,受惠政府未來私宅土地供應持續緊張,擁有豐富土儲的新地(00016.HK)及恆地(00012.HK)料跑贏大市。
報告稱,買家印花稅(BSD)及雙倍印花稅(DSD)大幅增加內地買家置業成本,2013年一、二手住宅物業成交量、值較2011年低出31%及41%。考慮現時疫情防控措施逐漸放寬及本港對國際逐步開放,瑞銀料未來數年有較大機會出現內地專才流入,支持住宅購買需求。
瑞銀表示,市場憂慮急速加息,樓花蜂擁推售及本地人口外流,本年至今中原城市領先指數(CCL)累跌4%。在近期進取降價後,新地屯門NOVO Land及恆地粉嶺北One Innovale第一期所推出單位上周末近售罄,或意味短期樓價已見底。考慮未來樓花供應減少、美國潛在減息、以及內地買家或加快入市,該行料2023年本港住宅市場基本面或呈輕微改善。
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