《大行報告》瑞銀降碧桂園(02007.HK)及龍湖(00960.HK)評級至「中性」 削目標價
瑞銀發表報告,根據閒置現金來衡量4家主要內地房企碧桂園(02007.HK)、萬科(02202.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)和旭輝(00884.HK)的現金消耗率,並評估需要多少合同銷售使其現金流達到收支平衡。該行下調了部分內房股票的盈利和目標價。
瑞銀將碧桂園和龍湖評級下調至「中性」,目標價分別下調至2.7元及25.7元。該行重申旭輝「中性」評級,看好萬科較好的現金流狀況和其半國企地位。
瑞銀分析表明,這四家主要內地房企均在2022年上半年產生了負數自由現金流,相當於截至2021年底閒置現金餘額的11%-41%,投資者擔心這種現金消耗的可持續性,市場已經降低了相應股票評級。
瑞銀估計,房企每月合同銷售額須從2022年上半年水平上升11%-16%,以使現金流恢復收支平衡,而萬科2022年上半年合約銷售水平已達到現金收支平衡之上水平。
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