《大行報告》花旗:內地純電動乘用車消費有降級初步趨勢 7月B-Segment批發量按月大跌48%
新能源汽車股今早捱沽,小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)股價挫6.6%、理想-W(02015.HK)和蔚來-SW(09866.HK)股價各下滑5.9%及7%,比亞迪(01211.HK)下滑4.7%報276.2元。
花旗發表報告表示,中國乘用車市場信息聯席會公布今年7月新能源汽車7月乘用車批發量56.41萬輛按年升129%(按月跌1%),指7月新能源汽車滲透率達26.4%(按月增長0.4個百分點/按年增長10個百分點)。內地7月純電動車(BEV)乘用車批發量按年增長116%(按月跌5%)至42.82萬輛,插電式混合動力汽車(PHEV)乘用車批發量按年增長183%(按月升14%)至13.59萬輛。
該行感覺到行業呈消費降級的初步趨勢,純電動乘用車B-Segment按月跌48%(而A00/A0/A段則按月增長5%至17%);該行就對交貨時間的最新渠道檢查顯示,比亞迪、蔚來和吉利(00175.HK)旗下Zeekr的訂單積壓可能比理想和小鵬更穩定。
花旗料從上述趨勢估計,新能源汽車企業收入預期受到影響,但同時認為這一趨勢對比亞迪和吉利的大眾市場定位影響有限。該行估計蔚來汽車藉新車型週期可跑贏同行。該行維持行業首選為比亞迪、蔚來和吉利。
據花旗列出的內地新能源汽車7月乘用車批發量數據,比亞迪7月錄16.2萬輛(按年升222%及按月升21%,市場份額28.76%)、上汽通用五菱7月錄5.9萬輛(按年升117%及按月升20%,市場份額10.52%)、吉利7月錄3.2萬輛(按年升313%及按月升8%,市場份額5.68%)、特斯拉中國7月錄2.8萬輛(按年跌14%及按月跌64%,市場份額5%)、廣汽埃安7月錄2.5萬輛(按年跌138%及按月升4%,市場份額4.44%)。
小鵬7月錄1.15萬輛(按年升43%及按月跌25%,市場份額2.04%,按月跌0.6個分點)、理想汽車7月錄1.04萬輛(按年升21%及按月跌20%,市場份額1.85%,按月跌0.4個分點)、蔚來7月錄1.01萬輛(按年升27%及按月跌22%,市場份額1.78%,按月跌0.5個分點)。
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