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三聯虹普(300384):66及可再生技術龍頭 己二腈國產化及ESG推廣只是開始 產業紅利逐級傳導
格隆匯 08-08 15:30
三聯為國內合成纖維及其原材料行業提供技術整體解決方案,持續將國內外實驗室或中試技術系統轉化為具備市場化競爭力的成套工藝解決方案,領域涉及滌綸及尼龍,近年在可再生材料方面快速佈局。三聯提供工藝包及配套核心非標設備進而鎖定生產線構建核心競爭力,擁有自主知識產權全流程工藝裝備技術,整體達到世界先進水平。 公司在滌綸及錦綸領域有較強產業引導力,未來有望充分受益高端尼龍國產化帶來的發展紅利。 其中三聯曾於90 年代為滌綸國產化奠定重要基礎,打破錦綸技術封鎖,形成的聚合、紡絲成套技術已覆蓋國內80%產能;引領錦綸從2000 年30 萬噸/年增至2019 年380 萬噸/年,成為我國第二大化纖品種。當前以PA66為代表的高端錦綸產業迎來重要國產化拐點,核心原料突破後需進一步攻克聚合環節(即從66 鹽至切片),形成不同類型聚合物以更好匹配下游應用。 伴隨66 國產化加快,我們預計未來相關聚合及紡絲環節迎來重要發展週期,三聯最早涉足錦綸工程服務,其PA66 紡絲-SSP 技術路線可有效提升高端錦綸長絲性能品質,佔絕對優勢地位,未來相關訂單或將貢獻顯著業績增量。 此外,公司聚焦資源循環再生實現節能減排,具有成熟技術佈局,符合未來品牌需求及產業方向,培育新的核心增長點。 ①控股子公司Polymetrix 已成為世界首屈一指掌握從廢舊瓶子-分揀-清洗-SSP-再生食品級聚酯瓶片全產業鏈核心技術的公司,未來環保及ESG 政策普及將有效提升再生聚酯產業滲透; ②再生錦綸方面於21 年與台華簽署合同,率先落地萬噸級化學法再生項目,突破物理法生產限制,技術全球領先; ③在生物基高分子材料領域取得重大突破,成功簽署國內首條單線年產4萬噸Lyocell 纖維項目。 截至22Q1 末,再生及可降解材料新籤合同額已突破21 全年水平。 維持盈利預測,維持買入評級 公司深耕化纖產業鏈多年,聚合反應工程學領域核心技術壁壘深厚,一方面己二腈國產化有望帶動公司下游訂單需求增長;另一方面公司近年新拓再生及可降解材料等新方向,受益再生市場快速成長打造新增量。我們預計公司22-24 年EPS 分別0.8/1.0/1.3 元,PE 分別25x/20x/16x。 風險提示:終端需求不及預期;全球供應鏈緊張導致項目結算週期波動;外匯波動等風險。
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