東方電纜(603606):海風裝機節奏暫緩影響公司業績 在手訂單破百億保障長遠發展
事件:公司發佈2022 年半年報,2022H1 實現營業收入38.59 億元,同比增長13.96%,實現歸母淨利潤5.22 億元,同比下降18.02%;2022Q2 實現營業收入20.43 億元,同比增長5.29%,實現歸母淨利潤2.44 億元,同比下降32.09%,環比下降12.39%。 搶裝後海風建設節奏放緩階段性影響公司業績,搶裝後海纜業務毛利率有所下降但仍處相對高位。2021 年海風搶裝後2022H1 我國海風裝機建設節奏有所放緩,疊加疫情影響致部分海纜項目交付延後,2022H1 公司海纜系統及海洋工程業務實現營業收入18.37 億元,同比小幅下降0.28%;毛利率同比下降約9 個pct但仍處於相對高位。另一方面,2022H1 我國陸風市場景氣度持續提升,公司陸纜系統實現營業收入20.22 億元,同比增長31.07%。受到海纜業務毛利率下滑及低毛利率的陸纜收入佔比階段性提升影響,公司2022H1 毛利率同比下滑6.11個pct 至23.66%。 “十四五”期間海風裝機規模有望超出預期,高電壓等級海纜應用規模將逐步提升。在大型化和國產替代背景下風機成本持續下降,海風平價進程有望加速,同時“碳中和”背景下沿海各省均加大對海風的開發支持力度,未來若國家層面持續加大對於國管海域項目的開發和審批力度,“十四五”期間我國海上風電新增裝機規模有望超出預期。同時,大兆瓦機型、大規模及遠距離風場的逐步落地將推動高電壓等級海纜(66kV 陣列纜、330kV 及更高規格送出纜)的應用規模,未來單GW 海風項目的海纜價值量有望維持甚至進一步提升。 公司技術、經驗、產品優勢明顯,持續拿單保障長期發展。在領先的技術實力、優異的過往業績經驗以及差異化的產品優勢加持下,公司在國內尤其是廣東海風市場連續中標,更是與Boskalis 公司聯合成功中標TenneT 的HKWB 歐洲海上風電總包項目(中標金額約5.3 億元),進一步打開歐洲高壓海纜市場。截至2022 年7 月31 日公司在手訂單105.22 億元,其中海纜系統63.11 億元(220kV及以上海纜約佔64%,臍帶纜約佔10%),陸纜系統和海洋工程分別為26.47億元和15.64 億元,充裕的在手訂單將為未來業績的快速增長提供有力保障。 維持“買入”評級。根據公司海纜產能擴張規劃以及對海風裝機規模的判斷,我們維持原盈利預測,預計公司22-24 年實現歸母淨利潤13.54/18.50/22.18 億元,對應EPS1.97/2.69/3.23 元,當前股價對應22-24 年PE 為38/28/23 倍。未來超高壓交流電纜(330kV 及以上)、柔直電纜以及相應產品的應用規模及敷設難度將持續增加,公司具備行業領先的技術實力並擁有類似產品的製造及應用經驗,有望憑藉差異化產品保障市場份額並獲取超額利潤,維持“買入”評級。 風險提示:原材料價格波動,產能釋放不及預期,政策導致海上風電投資放緩。
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