海信家電(000921):新老業務供需向好 盈利彈性有望釋放
投資要點央空:供需向好,行穩致遠。公司央空龍頭韌性顯現,由於華東地區收入佔比較高,疫情期間公司央空經營受到一定影響,但22Q2 公司央空整體表現仍優於行業主要競爭對手。據產業在線統計,22Q2 行業/大金/海信日立/格力/美的多聯機銷額同比-1.34%/-17.15%/ +2.52%/ -9.03%/ -1.75%。伴隨疫情逐步緩解、天氣持續高温以及地產需求邊際改善,下半年公司央空業務有望重回快增通道。6 月以來中央空調主要原材料價格持續下行,預計下半年公司央空業務成本將進一步改善。家空:成本改善+經營提效+天氣利好,全年有望扭虧為盈。22Q2 公司家空表現不俗,海信系空調內銷量/外銷量同比+1.74%/ +29.96%。銅等原材料價格持續下行為公司家空業務打開盈利空間,此外,空調內部經營提效,家空央空業務協同成效持續釋放。7 月以來各地高温天氣持續,疊加下半年世界盃賽事將近,預計公司家用空調銷售需求進一步提升。展望全年,供需兩端改善下公司家空業務有望扭虧。冰冷洗:下半年機遇與挑戰並存。22Q2 公司冰箱業務內外需求表現平淡。根據產業在線統計,22Q2 海信系冰箱內銷量/外銷量同比-6.25%/ -19.63%。伴隨原材料價格的下行,公司冰冷洗業務盈利彈性有望釋放。此外,隨着國內疫情緩解,盈利水平較高的內需佔比提升也將進一步優化公司盈利結構。受高基數與弱外需影響,下半年冰冷洗業務增長面臨一定挑戰。不過,伴隨下半年世界盃臨近,公司體育營銷將進一步發力,有望帶動海外動銷增長,對沖部分風險。汽車熱管理:預計減虧同比加速,新業務有望打開成長空間。目前海信家電子公司三電控股仍以燃油車熱管理為主要業務,由於歐洲營收佔比近半,俄烏衝突對公司經營造成一定擾動。不過,伴隨整合措施的穩步推進,三電控股經營逐步迴歸正軌,預計2022 年減虧同比加速。據財聯社報道,三電控股近期獲得美國特斯拉兩款電動壓縮機訂單,並鎖定5 年供應量,上量後預計每年訂單價值超過1 億美元,新訂單有望打開公司成長空間。盈利預測與估值:作為家電板塊中的強β標的,海信家電在歷次家電覆蘇行情中均有較為充足的收益彈性。雖然下半年外銷端仍存在部分不確定性,但成本改善、地產修復疊加消費復甦有望加速公司盈利和估值雙修復。此外,公司汽車熱管理業務訂單再突破,伴隨整合順利推進及新老穩步切換,短期有望加速減虧,長期成長空間廣闊。考慮到上半年國內疫情擾動和下半年海外通脹問題,我們下調公司盈利預測,預計公司2022-2024 年營收分別為760.92 /816.48 /875.05 億元,歸母淨利潤分別為13.83 /18.04/20.36 億元,對應8 月5 日收盤價的PE 分別為12.82x /9.83x /8.71x,維持“買入”評級。風險提示:原材料價格持續上漲、國內外終端需求不及預期、行業競爭加劇
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