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惠譽:內地生豬價格堅挺 有助生豬養殖業盈利水平回升
評級機構惠譽表示,內地生豬價格強勁反彈及糧食價格壓力緩解,將助力中國生豬養殖企業盈利水平回升,但該些企業信用狀況的改善將取決於其能否持續削減成本及審慎擴張。 惠譽指出,儘管第二季是傳統需求淡季,但由於生豬供應減少,今年第二季中國生豬價格強勁反彈,按季漲65%。預期基於目前的供應水平以及年末季節性需求上升,第三、第四季生豬價格將保持堅挺。不過,生豬價格上行空間可能有限,原因是生豬產能保持穩定且居高不下,6月全國生豬存欄量繼續增長,能繁母豬存欄量維持在高於政府4,100萬隻的目標水平之上。監於政府力求防止生豬價格出現大幅波動,預期政府爲壓制生豬價格過度上漲將會強力幹預。 此外,惠譽料生豬價格高企將推動生豬養殖企業的EBITDA自2022年第三季起恢復至正常水平,儘管由於各養殖企業成本狀況不同,利潤率改善程度將出現分化。大型養殖企業的利潤改善幅度可能更高,因該些企業較高的生產和營運效率導致其生產成本普遍較低。
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