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金雷股份(300443):全球風電主軸龍頭的繼續騰飛
格隆匯 08-04 11:50
投資亮點首次覆蓋金雷股份(300443)給予跑贏行業評級,目標價58.00 元,對應22.3倍2023 年市盈率。理由如下:風電發展加速,風電主軸環節有較好發展前景。受益於機組大型化帶來的風機降本超預期,我們預計十四五期間中國風電新增裝機量在保守和樂觀情形下分別有望實現年均 60GW 以上和70GW 以上,同時海外風電規劃提上日程,中長期發展潛力仍大。我們認為風電主軸環節競爭格局好,具備產能、技術和客户壁壘,頭部公司有望在全球風電裝機量提升的過程中,繼續提升全球市佔率。金雷股份為風電主軸龍頭,有望不斷橫向提高市佔率並進行品類擴張。2021 年金雷股份在風電主軸的全球市佔率約30%,與下游海內外主流風電整機商保持良好的合作關係。公司目前風電主軸產能15 萬噸,規劃的新增產能主要是配套風機大型化後的鑄造主軸需求,我們預計公司有望憑藉優質產能擴張擴大市佔率,2023 年公司總體市佔率有望提升至約37%。其他鑄件產品方面,我們認為公司可以沿“鍛造主軸——鑄造主軸及配套軸承座——輪轂、底座”的路徑逐漸延伸細分市場,鑄造主軸產品將為公司進軍後續大兆瓦輪轂、底座產品奠定基礎。公司成本管控優秀,2H22 開始有望改善盈利水平。2022 年開始公司已經通過定價調整部分對沖了部分原材料價格上漲影響,且2022 年原材料價格目前已經稍有回落,我們預計公司產品毛利率在下半年有望改善,我們預測公司全年綜合毛利率(不考慮税金及附加口徑)有望維持在32%以上,較4Q2021 和1Q2022 的低位有所提升。我們與市場的最大不同?金雷從風電鍛造主軸產品到鑄造主軸以及後續的大型風電鑄件的發展前景被市場低估。潛在催化劑:風電招標超預期;國內風電項目推進加速;海外風電發展加速。盈利預測與估值我們預計公司2022-2023 年EPS 分別為2.01 元、2.60 元,CAGR 為17.1%。我們首次覆蓋金雷股份,給予公司58.0 元目標價,對應28.9/22.3 倍2022/2023 年市盈率,較當前股價有24.8%的上行空間,給予“跑贏行業”評級。公司當前股價交易於23.1/17.9 倍2022/2023 年市盈率。風險原材料價格上漲幅度過大;行業需求不足帶來產能過剩;公司新產能建設進度和新產品銷售不及預期;銷售產品後回款緩慢;海外市場經營風險。
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