伊利股份(600887):目標明確 反饋積極
事件 2022年07月28日,公司在呼和浩特舉行投資者日活動並邀請投資者參加伊利現代智慧健康谷。 投資要點 三方面打造產業鏈,全球乳業第一目標不變 當前公司對產業鏈打造主要通過:1)優勢聚合,打造產業鏈共贏生態;2)創新聚合,推動產業鏈創新升級;3)勢能聚合,促進產業鏈可持續發展。公司全球乳業第一目標不變,有望提前至2025年前後實現這一目標。 液態奶優勢明顯,冷飲、奶粉及奶酪趨勢向好液態奶方面,已形成全國性奶源佈局優勢,收奶量全國最大。公司已形成“2+2+X”產品組合矩陣,第一個2是金典、安慕希組合,年銷售額均超過200億,第二個2是伊利母品牌、優酸乳,年銷售額均超過100億,另外X指公司佈局多個超10億品牌如舒化奶、果粒多、QQ星。奶粉方面,上半年公司全渠道增速20%以上,國產品牌增速第一,推出新品金領冠核心大單品珍護和塞納牧,創新建立“領嬰匯”平台,打造母嬰新生態,目標成為行業第一。與澳優協同利於公司供應鏈、瓶頸原料、技術研發等協同。冷飲方面,公司佈局的甄稀、須盡歡等反饋良好,同時不斷推出適應户外場景產品如迷你裝的產品。奶酪業務,公司去年四季度推出常温奶酪反饋良好,上半年完成50萬個網點覆蓋,預計年底門店突破百萬家,實現快速下沉市場覆蓋。 盈利預測 預計2022-2024年EPS為1.68/2.00/2.34元,當前股價對應PE分別為21/18/15倍,首次覆蓋,給予“推薦”投資評級。 風險提示 宏觀經濟下行風險、疫情拖累消費、競爭進一步加劇、原材料成本上漲、核心產品增長不及預期等。
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