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煤炭行業動態點評:供應或超預期 下調2H22煤價區間
格隆匯 08-02 11:10
旺季去庫不力或隱含供應增長超預期,下調2H22 煤價預測區間傳統迎峯度夏動力煤消費旺季並沒有帶來煤價的顯著上行,北港5500k 煤價反而逆季節性從7 月4 日的1,255 元/噸小幅下跌至7 月29 日的1,145 元/噸。6 月份以來北方和南方多年未遇的持續高温天氣以及國內經濟的小幅環比改善推動了煤炭日耗的顯著上行,但多個煤炭庫存監測指標顯示旺季去庫不力,或隱含國內供應提升超預期。政府持續的增產保供舉措推動了產量的提升並且2H22 會繼續通過產能核增來釋放產量以縮減供求缺口。考慮到超預期的煤炭供應和下半年温和而非強勁的經濟環比復甦,我們下調2H22 煤價預測區間從1,000-1,500 元/噸到800-1,300 元/噸。疲弱的非電用煤需求和潛在供應提升驅動煤價旺季小幅下跌受益於多年未遇的全國範圍的長時間高温天氣以及穩增長下經濟的環比小幅改善,“靠天吃飯”需求推動了沿海八省煤炭日耗從6 月份的同比下跌12%至7 月份的同比上漲7%。但電力用煤的顯著改善並沒有推動煤價出現季節性的上行,反而在7 月份煤炭價格環比下跌了110 元/噸。我們認為非電用煤的疲軟以及潛在供應的上升共同驅動了供求的寬鬆化。水泥行業和化工行業7 月份都加大了停產來應對高企的庫存和疲弱的利潤,同時煤炭日產量在6 月份重上1,260 天/噸之後我們預測7 月份或進一步攀升。三個“百分之百”的加強執行也消除了潛在的電廠補庫需求。2H22 季節性仍在,但較高的庫存驅動煤價波動區間中樞下移我們認為2H22 煤炭價格仍將是季節性驅動為主的區間震盪,雖然我們下調了價格區間。過去5 年的數據顯示,8 月份至次年1 月份月度動力煤日度需求平均比7 月份高出31 萬噸左右,同時穩增長政策的加強落實也會推動非電用煤略超季節性的環比改善,煤炭價格不具備中樞大幅下移的確定性環境。但目前相對較高的全社會庫存,7 月份弱於季節性的去庫幅度(據金正能源,7 月份全社會庫存僅下降393 萬噸左右,低於往年的1,000-1,500 萬噸),政府持續的增產保供措施的落實以及政府對於發電供熱用煤中長期合同的嚴格監管將推動煤價中樞進一步下移。微妙的平衡,2H22 或有潛在多重上/下行擾動因素國內煤炭市場目前處於微妙的平衡狀態,既沒有絕對緊缺也沒有絕對過剩。相對平衡狀態下,潛在的供給和需求的擾動可能會驅動煤價脱離我們的基準假設區間。潛在的上/下行擾動因素包括:1)安全事故或重大活動對國內煤炭生產的擾動 2)全球天然氣供應較大擾動 3)暖冬的出現 4)全球經濟早於和強於預期的衰退5)中國地產強於預期的復甦。這些潛在擾動因素的發生或對我們的煤價預測區間產生較大影響。考慮到所覆蓋煤炭公司較高比例的中長期合同比例和海外煤價繼續保持堅挺,煤價預測中樞的下移對市場情緒有負面影響但對煤企預測盈利影響有限,繼續推薦兗礦能源和陝西煤業。風險提示:由於安全事故或者重大活動或造成煤炭生產擾動,全球經濟衰退或國內經濟復甦不力對需求產生負面抑制。
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