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康緣藥業(600557):業績超預期 快速成長確定性進一步加強
格隆匯 08-02 13:10
事件。公司發佈2022 半年報,2022 上半年,公司收入20.97 億元,同比+18.54%;歸母淨利潤2.11 億元,同比+32.35%;扣非歸母淨利潤2.02億元,同比+24.21%。2022Q2,公司收入10.19 億元,同比+12.26%;歸母淨利潤1.01 億元,同比+33.92%;扣非歸母淨利潤0.95 億元,同比+14.28%。業績明顯超出市場預期。公司在2022 上半年,尤其是22Q2 疫情的不利環境下,依然實現了總體以及連續兩個單季度30%以上的業績增長,表現十分堅挺,再一次驗證了我們此前深度報吿裏着重強調公司困境反轉已經確立的邏輯。由於此前22Q2 部分中藥企業披露業績情況欠佳,市場此前對公司業績期待不高,此次披露的情況明顯超出市場預期,也略超我們預期。公司歸母淨利潤和扣非淨利潤增速的差異,主要是21H1 有1265 萬元對外捐贈(22H1 為295 萬元)影響。核心產品實現銷售快速增長。2022H1,公司注射液(銀杏二萜內酯和熱毒寧)收入7.53 億元,同比+20.2%,根據公司此前一季度披露情況,我們判斷,熱毒寧已經觸底反彈,加速增長,銀杏二萜內酯實現穩健增長,2022全年注射劑有望實現25%左右的增長;22H1 口服液實現收入4.35 億元,同比+48.36%,公司口服液絕大部分收入是金振口服液貢獻,該品種有望在今年成長為10 億級別產品。其他產品總體穩健,新品有亮點。2022H1,公司顆粒劑、沖劑收入0.96 億元,同比+45.6%,主要是杏貝止咳顆粒銷售同比增長所致;片丸劑收入1.69億元,同比+19.3%,我們判斷參烏益腎片、新藥銀翹清熱片推動了增長;膠囊劑收入4.98 億元,同比-0.74%,貼劑收入1.17 億元,同比-3.08%,這兩類藥品主要為公司老產品,我們判斷主要原因為Q2 疫情的影響導致營銷受阻,下半年有望改善。凝膠劑收入928 萬元,為公司新獲批的1 類中藥新藥筋骨止疼凝膠,後續有望繼續放量。疫情擾動華東區域業務,後續有望加速。從區域分佈看,華東地區22H1 收入8.39 億元,同比+7.19%,收入佔比40%,其他主要區域華中(佔比20%)、華南(佔比15.8%)增速均在25%以上,二季度上海及周邊疫情還是對華東業務產生一定擾動,預計下半年公司收入和利潤端均有望實現一定加速。激勵效果顯現,完成目標概率大。2022 年4 月,公司發佈2022 年度限制性股票激勵計劃(草案),核心要求是22 年收入增速不低於22%或淨利潤不低於24%、且非注射劑產品收入增速不低於22%;23 年收入增速不低於20%或淨利潤不低於22%、且非注射劑產品收入增速不低於23%;24 年收入增速不低於18%或淨利潤不低於20%、且非注射劑產品收入增速不低於22%;目前看,激勵效果已經顯現,完成相應目標僅需在非注射產品增速上繼續發力。盈利預測:預計2022-2024 年,公司歸母淨利潤分別為4.37 億元、5.62 億元、7.00 億元,同比增長36.2%、28.7%、24.5%,對應PE 分別為 18/14/12X,維持“買入”評級。風險提示:藥品價格變動風險、研發不及預期風險、大單品銷售放緩風險、市場競爭風險等。
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