涪陵榨菜(002507):品類多元化成效顯現 盈利彈性逐步釋放
事件。公司發佈2022 年半年報:22H1 公司實現營業總收入14.22 億元,同比+5.6%,歸母淨利潤5.16 億元,同比+37.2%,其中Q2 單季實現營業總收入7.33 億元,同比+15.0%,歸母淨利潤3.02 億元,同比+74.7%。Q2 營收加速增長,非榨菜品類快速發展。22H1/22Q2 營業總收入分別同比+5.6%/+15.0%,我們認為Q2 營收加速增長主要受益於疫情影響下公司品牌宣傳持續推進以及非榨菜品類規模提升。分產品:榨菜收入穩健增長,22H1營收同比+3.0%(量-10.0%,價+14.4%),3 月公司輕鹽新品上市,迎合健康飲食需求,我們預計隨着品宣地推持續發力、消費者接受度提升,產品迭代完成後收入有望進一步增長。22 年公司提出拓品類、拓市場的“雙拓”戰略,發力非榨菜板塊(蘿蔔、泡菜等),推出新版烏江下飯菜,對其定位及拓展模式進行重新梳理,並規劃蘿蔔品類專項傳播資源投入,22H1 蘿蔔/泡菜收入實現高增,其中蘿蔔低基數下營收同比+37.0%(量+25.9%,價+8.8%),泡菜營收同比+26.8%(量+10.9%,價+14.3%),我們認為品類多元化推進下,未來非榨菜品類將進一步貢獻收入增量。銷售二部建設推進,強化餐飲渠道建設。分地區:華南/華東/華中/華北/中原/西北/ 西南/ 東北營收分別同比-3.6%/+37.3%/-0.8%/+0.1%/+8.4%/-1.3%/-12.1%/+7.6%,我們認為華東地區收入快速增長或與公司協助疫區物資保供有關。分渠道:22H1 經銷/直銷渠道營收佔比分別為96.5%/3.5%;經銷商淨減少260 個至2770 個,我們認為主因公司整合部分市場和渠道,同時消費疲軟環境下大商較為堅挺,部分小商終止合作。同時公司銷售二部建設穩步推進,着力開發餐飲市場,已完成部分專業人員招募,未來市場拓展仍以城市為單位,分渠道匹配經銷商,以優勢產品打通渠道(榨菜、蘿蔔產品為主)。成本壓力緩解,盈利彈性逐步釋放。排除會計準則調整影響後,22H1 主營業務毛利率同比-0.84pct 至55.0%,榨菜/泡菜/蘿蔔毛利率分別-0.60pct/+5.20pct/-6.47pct 至57.6%/33.8%/41.9%。22 年5 月起低價原材料陸續使用(22 年青菜頭收購價同比-40%),我們預計還原後Q2 單季毛利率同比回升,在產品提價與成本回落背景下22H2 毛利率有望進一步提升。22Q2 經營性現金淨流量同比+50.7%至4.27 億元,我們認為主因銷售回款高增(同比+31.4%)、與廣吿費支出減少;合同負債環比淨增長0.20 億元至1.65 億元。廣吿費收縮提升盈利能力,公司毛銷差持續改善。22 年公司調整品宣推廣策略,降低線上廣吿費用投入、加強地面推廣,以“線上+線下”聯動策略促進終端銷量轉化。此外公司着力提升銷售一線員工數量與職工薪酬,22H1 銷售費用率同比-10.97pct 至14.20%,其中品牌宣傳/市場推廣/職工薪酬費用率分別同比-10.22pct/+2.01pct/+0.87pct,會計準則調整下運輸費用率同比-3.62pct(22Q2 銷售費用率同比-15.52pct 至10.8%)。22H1/22Q2 毛銷差分別同比+6.58pct/+14.34pct , 盈利能力持續改善。22H1 管理/研發/財務費用率分別同比+0.51pct/-0.10pct/-0.47pct 至3.1%/0.1%/-3.6%,期間費用率同比-11.04pct 至13.8%。22H1/22Q2 歸母淨利率同比+8.38pct/+14.08pct 至36.3%/41.2%。盈利預測與投資建議。我們預計公司2022-2024 年EPS 分別為1.13、1.32、1.54 元/股。參考可比公司估值,我們給予公司2022 年30-35xPE,對應合理價值區間為33.83-39.46 元,給予“優於大市”評級。風險提示。行業競爭加劇,渠道下沉、新品銷售不達預期,食品安全問題。
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