偉星新材(002372):成長性與穩健性兼備的塑料管材龍頭
核心觀點:家裝塑料管道龍頭,持續穩健增長。公司自上市以來保持穩健增長,經營質量穩步提升;同時公司治理結構優秀,上市後實施多次股權激勵且持續高分紅,利益與員工、股東共同分享。公司通過商業模式創新和強大的渠道管理能力在家裝零售管道領域建立起管道高端品牌。走差異化路線,渠道和品牌築就寬深護城河。塑料管道行業集中度目前仍較低,偉星走差異化路線在家裝管道細分市場佔據優勢。公司通過率先推出“星管家”服務和雙質保解決行業痛點,大幅提升品牌形象,帶來較高的產品溢價;同時,公司“直營+扁平化代理”的渠道給“產品+服務”的模式提供強有力支撐,渠道和品牌構築寬深護城河。零售和工程業務均具備成長性。零售業務來看,公司在家裝管道的市場份額仍有較大的提升空間,公司在國內其他地區有望複製華東區域的市佔率增長。此外,公司正向系統集成服務商轉型,全屋偉星品牌(拓展與“水”相關的品類)提升客單價,具有品牌協同度,同時公司經過幾年沉澱,打通了水電工-泥瓦工的渠道通路,同心圓業務放量將帶來新增長點。工程業務來看,建築工程穩健開拓、看重現金流,市政工程需求持續增長,公司深化結構性調整,保持良性快速發展。盈利預測與投資建議。公司作為家裝塑料管道龍頭,經營管理能力強,護城河寬深,同時積極拓展防水淨水等品類,帶來中長期成長空間。我們預計2022-2024 年歸母淨利潤分別為13.7/17.1/20.6 億元,按最新收盤市值對應PE 分別為22.9/18.3/15.2 倍,需求下行階段,公司報表質量依舊錶現出色。參考可比公司估值,維持公司合理價值26.53 元/股的判斷,對應22 年PE 約31x,維持“買入”評級。風險提示。宏觀環境及經濟景氣度下降的風險,原材料價格上漲,新業務拓展不及預期。
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