中谷物流(603565):業績持續高增長 高分紅回報股東
投資要點中谷物流2022 年中報經營數據維持高增長。中谷物流發佈2022 年中期財務數據,2022 年中報公司實現營業收入72.28 億元,同比增長28.98%;實現歸母淨利潤為15.42 億元,同比增長40.04%;實現扣非歸母淨利潤為12.77 億元,同比增長137.02%。公司發佈半年度分紅方案,每股派發紅利1.2 元(含税)。內貿集運市場運價上漲明顯,推動公司收入水平持續提升。2022 年上半年PDCI 運價指數同比上漲27%,拉動公司收入水平上漲明顯。當前內貿行業市場運力供給緊張,行業需求逐步釋放,帶來行業運價水平持續上漲。同時外貿集運市場對內貿船的分流效應持續兑現,部分內貿船舶轉為外貿航線運行將有效支撐當時內貿市場的供需緊平衡狀態。2021 年新簽訂單18 艘,逐步投放增厚運力。公司2021 年下達了18 艘4600TEU的船舶訂單,預計將於2022 年10 月開始投放。由於當前行業運力供給增速處於歷史相對低位,貨運需求有望保持持續穩定增長。公司領先同行進行建造船舶,為契合行業需求的釋放做好了運力儲備。投資建議:我們上調公司盈利預測,預計公司2022-2024 年歸母淨利潤為30.22/27.46/26.39 億元(原預測為23.47/26.57/28.26)億元,對應2022-2024年EPS 為2.13/1.94/1.86 元,以公司2022 年7 月29 日收盤價(17.39 元)計算,對應2022-2024 年PE 為8.2/9/9.3 倍,維持公司“審慎增持”評級。風險提示。1)運輸經營風險。2)行業競爭加劇。3)燃油成本擾動利潤。
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