《大行報告》瑞信下調中國平安(02318.HK)目標價至67元 評級「跑贏大市」
瑞信發表研究報告,預測中國平安(02318.HK)上半年新業務價值(VNB)將按年下跌約29%,意味第二季跌幅達20%,雖然預期第二季首年保費的跌幅將收窄至1.4%,但VNB利潤率預期仍然受壓。
該行預測,5月及6月經紀人數穩步增加,支持下半年VNB按年增長;另預測上半年及第二季財險保費按年增長10%,當中第二季度增長主要由非汽車保險所帶動,而車保增幅則回落至約4.4%。
瑞信又估計,疫情下交通意外相關汽車索賠頻率下降,惟被信貸質量惡化對信用擔保保險業務的影響所抵銷,綜合比率料按年增長(惡化)1.2個百分點至97.1%。
瑞信估計中國平安稅後經營溢利上半年將增長4%,意味第二季料下跌2%。至於稅後淨利,則預期上半年及第二季分別按年增長1%及逾20%。該行將2022至2023財年每股盈測分別下調3%及4%,以反映A股氣氛疲弱及本季至今陸金所控股(LU.US)股價下挫;H股目標價由70元降至67元,維持「跑贏大市」評級。
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