東方甄選走進戶外 領跑帶貨榜直播榜 解鎖新場景引領新方式
來源：天風證券
本週二東方甄選直播間從室內走向戶外，在黑龍江田間開啓直播帶貨，分爲三大場景：農田外景11:00-14:00、稻田落日18:00-19:00、煙火人間19:00-21:00；以藍天稻禾爲景，夕陽田間爲幕，形式耳目一新推動內容創新提升場景價值，拉進消費者與直播間距離，從粉絲到朋友，從消費者到生活者；直播期間持續位列帶貨榜以及人氣榜前列，銷售反饋強勁。
我們認爲更多場景解鎖，一方面將豐富SKU 及選品，打造地域化標籤，堅守轉型初心助農惠農，帶給消費者更多直觀商品體驗同時豐富充實直播間內容，吸引更多自然流量及轉化。另一方面我們持續看好東方甄選在抖音電商領域的模式創新能力及日益凸顯的品牌實力；此前藉助雙語直播破圈，如今藉助豐富外景提升購物體驗，沒有超低價雞血營銷，發力差異化內容化優質化直播；在吸引高質量客羣、獲得平臺支持同時，強化自身定位及標籤，打開成長空間。
上週東方甄選日均GMV 約2200 萬，較6 月9 日出圈滿月有餘，累計平臺GMV 約13 億，且在線人數、時長均表現亮眼；同時我們對東方甄選收入結算率及淨利率保持樂觀，均有望實現抖音直播帶貨平臺新高度。憑藉創業初心不投流，放大自身流量價值，發力自有品牌提升盈利能力，多平臺充分打開流量空間及品類運營。當前，賬號公司化、主播去頭化、供應鏈及運營標準化或是未來直播電商主要趨勢，我們認爲東方甄選等機構具備較好的成長前景。
維持盈利預測，維持買入評級。教育行業預期及基本面持續改善；一方面，以新東方在線爲代表的超跌K12 公司展現基本面向上、底部反轉趨勢，東方甄選具備較強的差異化運營基因及極深的戰略高度佈局，新東方好未來及天立教育等優質企業加速業務調整；另一方面，職教學歷伴隨基本面超預期兌現，產業認知持續變化，景氣度顯著回暖，中長期理順產業價值、發展邏輯及成長節奏。我們預計新東方在線FY22-24 收入分別爲6.5 億、25.3 億、31.5 億人民幣；FY22-24 淨利分別爲-5 億、6.8 億、9.2 億人民幣；EPS 分別爲-0.5、0.68、0.92 元/股，FY23-24 年PE 分別爲23x、17x。
風險提示：電商熱度不及預期；業務拓展情況不及預期；招生情況不及預期；市場競爭激烈等風險。
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