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《大行報告》大和下調理文造紙(02314.HK)目標價至3.5元 評級「跑贏大市」
大和發表研究報告指,理文造紙(02314.HK)日前發盈警,預期上半年盈利按年下跌59%,預期將達到8.8億元,為過去十年以來最差的中期表現。該行指出,盈警公布後股價走勢平平,反映市場早已對理文受到疫情影響及通脹推高生產成本有充分預期。雖然大和認為股份已被過度沽售,但目前考慮到理文欠缺新增產能、紙巾業務表現較差及匯率風險較大,因此更看好玖紙(02689.HK)在下半年的潛在復甦。 大和估計理文造紙上半年經調整每噸淨利潤達到300元人民幣,較去年下半年下降16%,為2011年以來的最低水平。展望下半年,預計多個假日及「雙11」傳統旺季帶動下被壓抑消費需求將再現,令經調整每噸淨利潤改善;在成本方面,相信煤炭和紙漿價格近月已見頂,行業供需動態正在改善。 大和將理文造紙2022至2023年盈利預測下調48%至57%,以反映利潤率壓力,目標價降至3.5元(原本7元),重申「跑贏大市」評級。
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