思摩爾國際(6969.HK):許可證落地 聚焦新國標產品接受度
本報吿導讀: 公司及國內核心客户獲得許可證,國內核心客户年配額高於三年均值,未來國內業務的焦點仍是新國標產品的接受度。 摘要:維持“增持 ”評級。因公司上半年業績略低於預期,下調公司 2022-2024 年經調整淨利潤預測值為33.8/42.1/47.5 億元人民幣,對應當前市值分別為29.5X/23.8X/21.1X,維持“增持”評級。 公司22Q2 利潤同比下滑。公司預計22H1 經調整淨利潤為13.22-15.54億元人民幣,上下限對應同比增速分別為-53.8%和-46.0%。若以預計區間中樞值計,22Q2 經調整淨利潤約為9.37 億元(yoy -46.4%),環比22Q1 增長69.3%。公司上半年收入同比下降,一方面由於21Q2 國內客户處於渠道高速拓展期,具有高基數原因,另一方面公司受到疫情停產、渠道補庫存意願下降的影響,推測收入略低於預期。費用率方面,公司按年初計劃加大研發費用投放,管理費用、銷售費用也同比大幅增長,顯示公司對塑造長期競爭力的重視程度高於短期業績。 公司及國內核心客户獲得許可證。2022 年7 月20 日公司發佈公吿稱,全資子公司獲得國家煙草局發佈的生產企業許可證,有效期自2022年7 月11 日至2023 年7 月31 日。根據公吿及公開信息,公司國內核心客户悦刻、雪加、魔笛也已於近期獲得許可證,這意味着2022 年9 月30 日過渡期結束後,公司國內業務可以正常開展。其中,佔公司2021 年國內業務收入80%的悦刻獲得每年3.287 億顆煙彈配額。國家煙草局在官網稱配額核算主要考慮生產設備公稱能力、三年實際銷量平均值、行業設備產能利用率三個因素。作為參考,2019/2020/2021 年悦刻煙彈出貨量分別為0.738/2.126/5.055 億顆,平均值為2.640 億顆。 新國標產品接受度仍是未來的焦點。市場擔心公司國內客户配額影響未來收入增長,但我們認為在不允許銷售口味煙彈的新規下,未來的焦點是新國標產品接受度(轉化率),同時國家煙草局也明確表示配額核算會考慮企業有序增長因素。渠道方面許可證發放穩步推進,截至7 月初全國電子煙零售許可證規劃約5 萬張。隨着新國標產品獲准上市,公司的國內市場出貨量預期存在上修的可能性。 風險提示: 公司陶瓷霧化芯產品被顛覆的風險;核心客户未能通過PMTA 的風險;美國FDA 禁止薄荷醇味霧化電子煙的風險
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