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海信家電(000921):短期主業利潤彈性大 未來汽零整合可看
投資建議 受益高温對空調零售帶動,原材料價格下跌趨勢,我們預計下半年公司主業彈性大;併購日本三電業務拓展至新能源車領域,未來改善空間大。 理由 家用空調業務需求&成本改善信號出現:1)公司家空業務已經歷了三年的陣痛期,2019 年激烈的競爭環境導致2H19 家空虧損,2020 年的疫情與2021年的行業需求疲軟及原材料成本快速上漲使得家空連續兩年虧損。2)6 月以來家電板塊各種邊際改善因素增多。各地推出消費刺激政策、國內及海外歐美地區大範圍高温來襲、主要原材料價格自高點回落等。3)AVC數據顯示,W26-W29(6.20-7.17)空調四周累計線上/線下零售額同比+41%/ +8%,其中海信系同比分別+37%/+35%,線上均價保持穩定,線下均價上漲趨勢延續,整體空調零售數據改善明顯。 中央空調Q2 受疫情影響較大,環比或將改善:1)央空安裝屬性強,Q2 短期受點狀疫情影響較大,但不改行業長期滲透率提升趨勢。2)2021 年公司央空收入184.1 億元,同比+38%,表現明顯好於行業。3)海信日立在管理靈活度、產品力及品牌力上均有優勢,我們預計短期疫情結束後公司恢復將快於同行。4)2021 年受原材料價格影響,公司央空利潤率17.1%,同比-3.6ppt,隨着原材料價格下降,我們預計央空盈利能力有望恢復。 汽零業務未來改善空間大:1)公司完成三電控股的併購,基於集團豐富的海外整合經驗,通過降本增效,我們預計三電2022 年明顯減虧,2023 年開始盈利。2)目前由於歐洲客户佔比高,三電收入及盈利短期受俄烏衝突影響。同時汽車訂單週期長,公司目前正處於新老訂單切換期。3)在新能源汽車快速發展的大環境下,三電憑藉自身技術優勢有望在汽車空調壓縮機、汽車空調產業及熱管理系統等領域實現快速拓展。 盈利預測與估值 受近期高温帶動空調銷售疊加原材料價格下跌等因素影響,我們上調2022/2023 年淨利潤18%/22%至13.1 億元/17.2 億元。當前A股股價對應2022/2023 年14.1 倍/10.8 倍市盈率。當前H股股價對應2022/2023 年8.1倍/6.2 倍市盈率。A股維持跑贏行業評級,由於公司作為二線白電龍頭,業績彈性較大,我們上調目標價24%至17.1 元,對應2022/2023 年17.7 倍/13.6倍市盈率,較當前股價有25%的上行空間。H股維持跑贏行業評級,我們上調目標價18%至12.5 港元,對應2022/2023 年11.2 倍/8.5 倍市盈率,較當前股價有38%的上行空間。 風險 空調市場競爭風險;原材料價格波動風險;併購整合進度不及預期。
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