華能國際(600011):風光高增;補貼加速回款推動現金流好於預期
業績回顧2022 年上半年業績符合公司指引華能國際公佈1H22 業績:1H22 公司收入1,168.69 億元,同比+22.68%(2Q 收入516.19 億元,同比+14%)。受燃煤採購價格同比大幅上漲影響,1H22 歸母淨虧損30.09 億元,同比-167.6%(2Q 歸母淨虧損20.52 億元,較1Q 虧損9.56 億元進一步擴大),符合業績預吿-27~-32.4 億元。分板塊:煤電增收不增利,2Q 虧損擴大。雖然2Q 平均上網電價保持亮眼,但是2Q 煤電電量同比下滑18%,且上半年進口煤體量同比下行,導致煤炭供應緊缺、價格高漲,使得公司煤機單燃同比高漲53%到391.3 元/兆瓦時,造成2Q 燃煤板塊税前虧損達57.9 億元,2Q 合計税前虧損32.6億元。新能源1H22 貢獻39.5 億元,公司維持全年新增目標不變。雖然上半年利用小時數下滑,但上半年風光利潤總額達39.5 億元,同比+23%。上半年公司新能源新增裝機3.1GW(風電1.9GW,光伏1.2GW),公司維持全年新能源新增裝機目標8.03GW 不變(風電3.03GW,光伏5GW)。補貼回收帶動經營性現金流明顯改善,財務費用環比下行。2Q22 經營性現金流達116.84 億元,較1Q22 提升39.0%,我們認為虧損面環比擴大,但現金流改善主要來源於應收帳款下降,1H22 公司收回可再生能源補貼86億,帶動應收賬款從FY21/1Q22 的398.57/435.33 億元下降至342.90 億元。2Q 財務費用23.29 億元,同比+17%,但環比改善8%。發展趨勢高温後煤價旺季不旺有望兑現,疊加政策力度趨緊,下半年煤價有望下行。6 月份以來,隨着中長期合同逐步落地及國內增產保供政策持續發力,煤炭供應端出現明顯改善,而需求端表現不達預期,煤炭供需緊張局面大幅緩解。近日,港口產地及印尼中低卡市場煤價降幅明顯,秦皇島動力煤平倉價由7 月15 日的1248 元/噸下降至7 月27 日的1148 元/噸。我們認為當前電廠庫存保持高位,議價能力增強,煤價有望持續走低。截至7 月8日,公司中長期合同覆蓋率達83.5%,我們認為在中長期合同三個100%政策的支持下,公司在煤炭供應及價格上將獲得有力保障。盈利預測與估值由於上半年火電不達預期,我們下調2022 年盈利預測81.9%到16.3 億元,但考慮到煤價2H 進入下行通道,我們維持2023 年盈利預測120.6 億元不變。當前A/H 股股價對應2023 年8.8 倍和4.1 倍市盈率。我們認為煤價回落將開啟盈利和估值雙修復,我們維持A/H 股維持跑贏行業評級和10.80 元/4.90 港元目標價,對應14 倍和5.5 倍2023 年市盈率,較當前股價有59.3%和33.9%的上行空間。風險電煤中長期合同執行不達預期,煤價持續高位運行。
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