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《大行報告》大和:下半年財險前景仍遠勝壽險 偏好財險(02328.HK)及友邦(01299.HK)
大和發表研究報告,指出由於利潤率受壓,拖累上半年壽險行業新業務價值(VNB)按年或下跌28%,認為下半年保險業前景平平,但第二季財險盈利能力較首季有所提升,下半年看好財險前景將勝過壽險,預期財險龍頭企業市場份額增長,表現將繼續強勁。 該行指出,第二季財險盈利能力按季改善,其中三大財險公司的汽車保險綜合成本率(CoR)預期有所下降,特別是在新能源汽車保險方面,中國人保(01339.HK)新能源汽車CoR降至97%以下。疫情影響下新保單數量未見理想,但國家汽車支持政策推動下車險有所回升。大和預計除平安財險外,上半年財險龍頭企業的CoR將按年增長1.5個百分點。 展望下半年,大和預期隨著競爭格局改善,非車險費用率將出現更顯著提升,預測下半年財險(02328.HK)CoR將按年提升2個百分點,人保今年亦將實現行內最高淨利潤及每股派息增長。而壽險方面,由於行業仍在轉型,大和預期行業VNB將下降15%,第二季及上半年VNB利潤率預期將大幅下降;下半年VNB未見明顯起色。 目前大和較看好財險及友邦(01299.HK),均給予「買入」評級。
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