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《大行報告》高盛:若內地設房地產基金短期有助緩解內房流動性風險 惟內銀估值或受影響
據報內地擬設房地產基金支援財困內房,規模介乎2,000億-3,000億人幣。高盛發表報告指,相關政策短期內有助緩解內房流動性風險,以3倍槓桿假設,估計內地房企獲得的融資規模可能達6,000億-9,000億元人民幣。 據報該基金首期將從建設銀行(00939.HK)獲得500億元人民幣資金,以及人行300億元人民幣的再貸款額度。高盛認為,政策會令不良貸款處置將被推遲,這可能會為建設銀行的估值帶來壓力,如果其他銀行加入該計劃,也可能帶來不良貸款問題。 高盛表示,不排除當局會允許更高槓桿的可能性,認為最大槓桿為12.5倍,最大基金規模可能介乎2.5萬億-3.75萬億人民幣。 高盛估計,中國銀行業的不良貸款總額為8萬億人民幣,其中1.5萬億人民幣為房地產企業貸款信貸損失。
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