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聯泓新科(003022):光伏級EVA龍頭 立足一體化產業鏈打造新材料矩陣
格隆匯 07-26 00:00
公司是具備一體化產業鏈的光伏級EVA 龍頭。公司是我國EVA 龍頭,現有EVA 產能15 萬噸,其中光伏級佔80%。2021 年,受益於EVA 景氣度抬升,公司實現歸母淨利潤10.9 億,同比增長70.2%。我們認為在未來兩至三年維度中,光伏需求預期抬升下EVA 粒子行業產能難以有效新增,公司作為行業龍頭有望持續實現高盈利。公司目前已擁有甲醇-烯烴-烯烴深加工新材料的一體化產業鏈。未來,公司將持續強化在EVA 領域競爭力,在持續擴充EVA 產能的同時,將實現關鍵原料VA 的配套,進一步強化成本優勢。需求預期抬升,供給難以有效新增,EVA 高景氣延續。地緣政治因素下全球能源價格高企,2022 年上半年中國光伏產品出口總額259 億美元,同比大幅增長113%。另一方面,目前產業鏈大部分利潤空間被硅料侵蝕,隨着行業新增硅料產能集中投放,硅料有望進入過剩週期,為產業鏈其餘環節釋放盈利空間。在產業鏈中,我們認為EVA 粒子由於設備訂購、安裝、調試周期長(擴產週期約三年),因此兩至三年內行業產能增長難以滿足高速增長的需求,景氣度有望超預期。經我們測算,2022 年、2023 年我國有望實現光伏級EVA 需求111 萬噸、142 萬噸,分別同比增加41、31 萬噸。而統計2024 年以前行業能完成爬坡貢獻產量的新增產能僅新疆天利高新20 萬噸、古雷煉化30 萬噸,再考慮到其中光伏級產品比例,光伏級EVA 行業實際新增供給將十分有限。公司擁有EVA 產能15 萬噸,光伏膠膜料佔比穩定在80%以上,20 萬噸EVA 新增產能預計2024 年至2025 年投產,公司作為光伏級EVA 龍頭將充分受益賽道高景氣。立足一體化產業鏈,持續打造層次豐富的新材料產品矩陣。除EVA 外,公司立足一體化產業鏈佈局一系列成長空間顯著的新材料:1)鋰電材料:立足一體化烯烴深加工產業鏈,公司佈局包括2 萬噸濕法隔膜料超高分子量聚乙烯、四種電解液溶劑共10 萬噸溶劑以及3000 噸鋰電池添加劑VC;2)可降解塑料:公司立足江西科院技術建設13 萬噸一體化PLA,並攜手長春應化所建設5 萬噸PPC,佈局空間廣闊的可降解材料;3)電子特氣:佈局電子級氯化氫、氯氣、三氯氫硅及四氯化硅產品主要用於集成電路和麪板生產的蝕刻等環節。公司已通過下游企業認證,客户包括台積電、新傲科技等。盈利預測與估值建議。我們預計公司2022-2024 年營業收入分別為95.07/108.10/126.40 億元;歸母淨利潤13.42/17.86/22.07 億元;對應PE 分別為39X/29X/23X 倍。公司是光伏級EVA 粒子龍頭,未來將持續打造應用於光伏、鋰電、半導體等高成長領域的新材料產品矩陣,一體化新材料平台型廠商揚帆起航。首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。風險提示:光伏新增裝機不及預期、產品價格不及預期、項目建設進展不及預期、測算存在誤差。
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