《即日市評》港股偏軟 成交續不足千億 內房股彈
港股今日隨外圍偏軟,市場觀望美聯儲局本周稍後時間的議息結果及指引。標普全球7月美國綜合採購經理指數初值跌至47.5,遠差過市場預期,美製造業指數初值跌至52.3,美股道指及納指上周五各跌0.4%及1.9%;執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率跌至2.807厘,美匯指數跌至106.53,美股道指期貨最新升45點或0.15%,納指期貨最新升0.31%,摩通亞洲區貨幣指數處101.65。人民幣即期收升121點報6.7536兌一美元,上證綜指今日跌19點或0.6%收3,250點,深證成指跌0.8%,滬深兩市成交額共8,622億人民幣。
恆指低開92點後跌幅擴大,午後跌幅曾度擴大至255點一度低見20,353點,其後跌幅曾收窄至14點見20,595點,全日跌46點或0.22%,收20,562點;國指跌29點或0.42%,收7,077點;恆生科技指數跌63點或1.38%,收4,534點。大市全日成交總額893.69億元,滬、深港通南下交易分別淨流入10.66億及2.38億元人民幣。
【成交不足千億 內房股有支持】
內地汽車股受壓。小鵬(09868.HK)、蔚來(09866.HK)及理想(02015.HK)股價各挫5.9%至6.4%,北汽(01958.HK)及長汽(02333.HK)各跌3.1%及4%,吉利(00175.HK)跌2.4%。摩根大通發表研究報告指,中國汽車市場疲軟情況可能持續到年底。
摩通表示,市場憧憬下半年潛在需求強勁,大多數OEM廠商仍堅持全年批發目標,但該行表示,高期望可能會導致更大的失望,包括上半年汽車股盈利表現或遜於預期,以及下半年需求復甦可能未足夠,因此維持第一季時訂立的預測。
【跌股一千隻 內房股彈高】
港股今日市寬轉弱,主板股票升跌比率為15比24(上日為17比20),下跌1,024隻(跌近2.5%);恆指成份股今日38隻股份上升,下跌股份28隻,升跌比率為55比41(上日為49比45)。大市今日錄沽空160.76億元,佔可沽空股份成交額737.26億元的21.805%(上日為20.89%)。
市場憧憬內地或設基金支援財困內房,內房股受追捧。旭輝(00884.HK)全日股價升10.3%,龍湖(00960.HK)及富力(02777.HK)各升6.8%及5.7%,碧桂園(02007.HK)及雅居樂(03383.HK)各升4.5%及4.3%。中金發表報告表示,各地地方政府「保交樓」政策執行力度加大,「一樓一策」全力推進復工。
從地方看,中金指內地保交樓方案強調市場化法制化,調動政府、房企、國企、金融機構各方的積極性推進債務化解、存量資產盤活、增加現金流。具體方案包括第一是政府回購地塊,收購部分未動工土地,返還房企土地款用於保交樓;第二是成立紓困基金,以強信用的新主體(國企等)來撬動金融槓桿,通過資產處置、資源整合、重組顧問等方式;第三是實控人提供資產以獲得新的抵押貸款;第四是以第三方房企開發代建,通過品牌換新、信用重構來激活銷售;第五是破產復工續建。往前看,該行指在各地、各方積極保交樓的努力下,如果「停貸風波」逐漸平息,購房者情緒有望逐漸修復。
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