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天地科技(600582):龍頭之姿 引領“無人下井”採煤新時代
格隆匯 07-24 00:00
核心觀點:公司是全產業鏈佈局的煤機行業龍頭,盈利能力持續改善。公司股東背景雄厚,成立以來逐步完善全產業鏈佈局,引領行業智能化升級。公司營收規模多年位居煤機行業第一,龍頭地位凸顯,2017 年以來。煤炭行業調整接近尾聲,新一輪發展機遇期已經到來。公司技術與產品升級迭代,毛利率領先同行,盈利能力持續改善。煤機行業需求復甦,龍頭份額顯著提升。今年煤炭保供增產+替換週期到來,煤機需求迎來顯著復甦。2022 年1-5 月煤炭開採和洗選業累計固定資產投資完成額同比增長40.7%,創2012 年以來新高。設備老齡化、下游盈利修復共同推動煤機替換週期到來。上一輪開支高峯集中在2011-2013 年,新一輪替換訂單需求到來。行業下行週期煤機供給競爭格局優化,龍頭企業有望享受本輪需求擴張紅利。煤礦智能化推動設備需求擴容,行業集中度有望再提升。我國煤礦智能化仍處於初級階段,政策和產業雙驅動下,未來空間廣闊。智能化推動行業擴容,我們測算2025 新增煤礦智能化改造需求將達到213 億元,改造需求空間廣闊。2022-2025 年新增煤礦智能化空間分別為79/114/153/213 億元。煤礦智能化對軟硬件設備提出更高需求,天地科技有望藉助智能化改造訂單,新一代智能化產品體系和系統優勢進一步提升行業份額,實現集中度再提升。盈利預測和投資建議。預計22-24 年公司收入分別為285/321/368 億元;歸母淨利潤分別為23.4/27.7/32.1 億元。我們將公司煤機業務與煤炭生產業務分部估值,參考可比公司給予2022 年煤機業務13xPE,煤炭生產業務6xPE,對應合理價值5.84 元/股,給予“買入”評級。風險提示。國內外煤價劇烈波動;下游資本開支擴張不及預期;行業競爭加劇;智能化業務拓展不達預期。
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