復旦微電(688385)：業績持續高增長 上調盈利預測
格隆匯 07-24 00:00
事件公司7 月23 日發佈2022 年中報業績預吿，上半年預計營業收入16.8-17.2億元，同比增長49%-52%；歸母淨利潤為5.1-5.5 億元，同比增長162%-183%；扣非淨利潤5-5.4 億元，同比增長209%-234%。營收端符合預期，業績超預期。經營分析22Q2 盈利能力環比繼續提升。22Q2 預計收入9-9.4 億元，同比增長44%-50%，環比增長16%-21%；歸母淨利潤2.8-3.2 億元，同比增長155%-191%，環比增長22%-39%。22Q2 扣非淨利率按中值計算30.6%，環比增加1.5pct，盈利能力繼續環比提升。公司22H1 股權激勵費用7370 萬元，全年股權激勵費用為1.5 億元。公司22H1 收入大增主要系高可靠性等產品持續供不應求，主要產品線處於放量階段；利潤增速遠超收入增速，我們判斷主要系高毛利率的FPGA 等產品佔比提升，以及受疫情影響研發節奏放緩，上半年研發項目除薪酬外的其他費用支出較上年同期減少。分業務板塊來看：1）根據公司公開披露的交流紀要，公司高可靠產品持續供不應求，21 年FPGA 及其他芯片營收4.3 億元同比增長109%。公司正在積極開展新一代基於14/16nm 的10 億門級產品開發，進一步豐富28nm 製程的FPGA 及PSoC 芯片種類以拓展新的市場，保持公司在國產FPGA 技術上的領先地位。2）公司MCU 業務實現下游應用拓展，21 年公司MCU產品約60%-70%左右應用在電錶中，通用產品的份額在逐步提升。復旦微電LG 系列MCU 已成功獲得AEC-Q100 認證，目標應用領域包括車用雨刮器、車窗、座椅、門鎖、空調、電子換擋器等，正在市場推廣中。3）公司安全與識別芯片、非揮發存儲器中的高可靠存儲產品毛利率水平較高，是公司存儲業務重要的安全墊，公司存儲的增長主要是來自高可靠產品和NANDFlash。多款產品通過車規認證，智能卡與安全芯片的FM1280 芯片和智能設備芯片的FM17 系列讀寫芯片產品都成功獲得AEC-Q100 認證，在車用TBOX 安全芯片和數字鑰匙等領域取得突破。車規級EEPROM也有出貨。盈利調整與投資建議預計公司2022-24 年歸母淨利潤預測為9.2/11.1/13.5 億元， 上修18%/16%/16%，同比增速79%/21%/22%，對應PE 為53/44/36 倍，維持“買入”評級。風險提示FPGA 市場需求不及預期、存儲器週期性風險、安全與識別芯片毛利率下滑風險、MCU價格下滑風險等、限售股解禁風險。
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