《大行報告》摩通普遍下調水泥股目標價 料短期需求不會反彈
摩根大通發表研究報告指,疫情及樓市下行導致水泥需求疲軟,加上煤炭價格高企令每噸水泥毛利空間減少,以及市場對價格戰的擔憂,令年初至今中國水泥股累計下跌14%,跌幅高於同期恆生國企指數表現。
踏入7月中旬,該行表示出貨量和價格數據仍然令人失望,考慮到季節性因素,預計近期需求不會出現反彈。展望未來,摩通認為利好政策預期及企業的積極管理仍不足以推動股價回升,估計只有出貨量數據出現實際改善的情況下,市場才會對行業進行重新評估。
假設內地沒有再實施封城措施,預期復甦將於今年第四季才會出現,因此摩通降低對覆蓋的中國水泥股盈利預測,預測第二季盈利按年跌幅將介乎33%至84%,當中受惠於非水泥業務的增長,預期中國建材(03323.HK)跌幅最少,予「增持」評級,目標價13元。
該行將水泥股2022至2023年盈利預測普遍下調13%至52%,目標價普遍下調5%至15%。其中海螺水泥(00914.HK)目標價降至46元,評級為「增持」;華潤水泥(01313.HK)目標價為6元,評級「中性」。
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