《大行報告》摩通:內地拒還房貸可能會扼殺市場復甦預期 主要憂慮為對經濟產生負面影響
摩根大通發表研究報告指,內地最近的買家拒付房貸風波,可能會扼殺房地產市場復甦預期,指出在沒有中央政府直接干預的情況下,地方政府反應似乎不足。
市場目前主要擔憂為樓市呈螺旋式下降趨勢,對內地經濟產生負面影響。該行表示,假設內地有20%預售項目將延遲交付,以及50%的受影響買家將暫停支付抵押貸款,預測抵押貸款不良貸款將增加8,000億元人民幣,令抵押貸款拖欠率上升211個基點。
鑑於最近風波,摩通預期中央政府可能會加強對內房託管賬戶的管理,加劇開發商資金鏈壓力,但認為當局短期內不會從樓市預售系統上入手,中期來看放棄預售制度可能是政策性方法。
摩通又指,對地方政府能否迅速解決問題抱謹慎態度,認為地方政府目前面臨的財政困難將大大限制其能力,若地方政府未能及時解決問題,宏觀經濟風險可能會加劇,買家信心可能會進一步惡化,令樓市銷售進一步走弱。
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