《大行報告》法巴:內地「爛尾樓」事件或抑制購房者情緒 但料內銀住宅按揭貸款的違約可能性很低
法巴發表報告,預料內地「爛尾樓」事件或抑制購房者情緒,令內地政府對預售託管賬戶施加更嚴格控制,並增加內地房企的流動性壓力,投資者目前對銀行的信心極低,這也是由不同事件驅動的,包括河南村鎮銀行事件、信託產品糾紛、按揭問題等。
法巴預料,內銀住宅按揭貸款的違約可能性很低,但停止還貸事件反映了民營房企面臨的流動性挑戰和消費者信心疲軟,相信這可能導致銀行財富管理業務復甦乏力,尤其是私人銀行。
法巴考慮到2022年與財富管理相關的收入增長放緩,適度下調了兩家零售銀行爲主內銀的公允價值估計,其中招商銀行(03968.HK)從每股70港元下調至68港元,平安銀行(000001.SZ)從每股26元人民幣降至24元人民幣。
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