《大行報告》摩通下調華能(00902.HK)目標價至3.9元 行業首選潤電(00836.HK)
摩根大通發表研究報告指,華能(00902.HK)日前發盈警,市場預期其火電業務將出現淨虧損,因此預期電力股中期業績將不太可能成為股價驅動因素。
相反,該行認為未來投資重點將集中在下半年燃料成本和關稅上調前景、可再生能源新產能目標,以及華潤電力(00836.HK)或分拆可再生能源業務之上。
該行預測下半年標準煤價格將較上半年下跌10%,至每噸960元人民幣,或帶動獨立發電廠盈利反彈,同時降低風電利用小時數基數,對行業維持積極看法,首選為潤電,指出其可再生能源資產估值較同業有超過20%折讓,認為分拆計劃今年不太可能實行。
摩通將華潤電力及中國電力(02380.HK)今年盈利預測分別下調19.7%及4.4%,以反映煤價高於預期,目標價分別為21元及5.3元。摩通並將華能目標價由3.95元降至3.9元,今年全年盈利預測下調86.7%。
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