金禾實業(002597)投資價值分析報吿:上下游協同發力 甜味劑龍頭未來可期
公司是全球甜味劑龍頭,順應代糖需求增長及新型甜味劑滲透率增加的行業趨勢,公司不斷提升甜味劑產能規模及品類豐富度,深耕原材料一體化,行業競爭力持續增強。公司同時也積極拓展高附加值精細化工業務,佈局功能性化工中間體及醫藥中間體,打開成長空間。預測2022-2024 年公司歸母淨利潤分別為17.0/18.6/20.7 億元,給予目標價53 元(對應2022 年17.5xPE)。首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。 全球甜味劑龍頭,精細化工佈局持續拓展。公司主要從事食品飲料、大宗化學品、功能性化工品及醫藥中間體業務。公司甜味劑產能全球領先,截至2022 年6 月,公司擁有安賽蜜產能1.2 萬噸,三氯蔗糖產能8000 噸,新一代天然甜味劑阿洛酮糖產能1500 噸。基於甜味劑行業的規模效應及下游協同,公司產能、品類優勢有望轉化為成本優勢及渠道優勢,在行業競爭中取得有利地位。 減糖需求驅動甜味劑增長,龍頭享受成長紅利。伴隨着全球肥胖人數及糖尿病患者數量持續增加,消費者對減糖、無糖的需求日益增長,甜味劑成長空間廣闊。2015-2019 年,安賽蜜、三氯蔗糖等蔗糖甜度當量產量CAGR 分別為9.82%和18.92%,而傳統合成甜味劑等蔗糖甜度當量產量CAGR 為-14.1%,安賽蜜、三氯蔗糖憑藉安全性、口感等優勢,正逐步實現對糖精鈉、阿斯巴甜等傳統合成甜味劑的替代。公司憑藉規模優勢及產業鏈一體化,成本優勢凸顯,有望充分享受行業增長紅利。 完善一體化佈局,拓展精細化工產業鏈。公司不斷完善甜味劑、麥芽酚產業鏈上游配套,佈局氯化亞碸、DMF、雙乙烯酮、糠醛產能,一體化不斷深入,成本優勢愈發堅固。公司也在持續拓展精細化工產業鏈,積極佈局功能性化工中間體、醫藥中間體等高附加值業務,為未來業績增長打開空間。 風險因素:原材料價格波動風險;行業競爭加劇風險;新產能釋放不及預期;環保及安全生產風險;新一代合成甜味劑替代風險;關税政策及匯率波動等出口風險。 投資建議:公司是全球甜味劑龍頭企業,甜味劑產能規模、品類豐富度持續提升,深耕產業一體化,並不斷佈局拓展高附加值精細化工業務,看好公司長期成長空間。我們預計2022-2024 年公司歸母淨利潤分別為17.0/18.6/20.7 億元,對應EPS 預測分別為3.04/3.31/3.68 元。甜味劑行業可比公司(三元生物、保齡寶、百龍創園、華康股份)2022 年Wind 一致預期平均估值16.4xPE,考慮到公司在甜味劑行業的龍頭地位及精細化工業務的長期佈局,給予公司一定估值溢價,給予公司2022 年17.5xPE。對應目標市值300 億元,目標價53 元。 首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。
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