禾豐股份(603609):低估值高增速的飼料-食品全產業鏈龍頭
本報吿導讀: 公司從飼料到養殖、屠宰加工全產業鏈佈局,飼料業務穩健經營,養殖業務受益於養殖業週期復甦,業績有望迎來爆發。 投資要點: 首次覆蓋,給 予“增持”評級。預計公司2022~2024 年EPS 分別為0.52/0.97/1.63 元,給予目標價16.12 元,首次覆蓋給予“增持”評級。 飼料行業集中度提升,禽畜養殖盈利邊際向好。1)隨着下游養殖集中度和生產專業化提升,中小飼料企業逐步退出市場,飼料行業集中度逐步提升。2)豬週期反轉已至。2022 年4 月後豬價進入中樞抬升階段且已經去化的產能能夠支撐新一輪豬週期到來;3)隨着豬價進入新一輪上行週期,白羽肉雞作為替代性動物蛋白因此受益,毛雞價格有望逐步復甦,養殖利潤有望邊際好轉。 飼料業務:逆週期擴張,市佔率提升。從量來看,公司飼料銷量逆週期擴張,紮根東北,多地開花,在多個區域和海外營收實現高速增長。 從盈利能力來看,公司飼料毛利率領先行業,源於公司提高研發技術,同時將產品和服務相結合, 3 年平均毛利率保持在10%以上。 禽產業邁入第一梯隊,生豬出欄量穩步增長,養殖板塊盈利能力提升。1)禽板塊:公司當前已建立完整的飼料-養殖-深加工一體化肉雞產業鏈,禽產業規模躋身全國白羽肉雞養殖屠宰第一梯隊,2021 年公司控參股的白羽肉雞屠宰量佔行業的10%以上。2)豬產業:審慎擴張規模,嚴控養殖成本。2021H2 公司持續淘汰低效母豬,公司2022年控制養殖規模,母豬整體生產性能進一步增強,成本控制有保障。 風險提示:原料價格大幅上升的風險、禽畜價格大幅波動的風險、養殖的疫情風險。
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