蘇泊爾(002032)：短期外銷受宏觀擾動 內銷新興渠道加速發展
格隆匯 07-21 00:00
事件：公司披露半年度業績快報，22H1 收入103.2 億元，同比-1.05%，歸母淨利潤9.3 億元，同比7.77%；其中Q2 收入47.1 億元，同比-11%，歸母淨利潤3.9 億元，同比9.4%。新興渠道加速發展，外銷需求顯著下滑分業務看，內銷平穩增長，外銷顯著下滑。根據我們的拆分，22Q2 國內收入+1%，其中線上+6%，線下-9%。二季度雖然在4-5 月份受疫情和國內消費需求的影響增速有所放緩，但公司得益於線上渠道轉型戰略成功落地、產品銷售結構持續優化，在6.18 大促上的表現較為優異，同比增長13.25%。同時，在內銷線上渠道方面，得益於興趣電商的流量優勢，公司在抖音平台上實現了快速增長，22Q2 成交同比+217.64%。外銷方面，由於主要客户為了更好的應對國際上不穩定的政治及經濟局勢，積極管理控制當地渠道存貨水平，公司上半年出口業務在連續兩年高速增長後有所下降，我們預計22Q2 外銷收入同比下滑較大。銷售結構優化提升利潤水平，成本端有望持續改善利潤方面，公司22Q2 歸母淨利率為8.4%，同比+1.56pct，主要得益於渠道轉型及銷售結構優化，公司直營比例上升+高客單價產品銷售情況較好，使毛利率得到改善，同口徑相比，22H1 綜合毛利率同比提升2.95pct。22H1銷售費用率同比+2.18pct；其中Q2 銷售費用率為18.54%，同比+7.14pct，主要由於公司為支持和實現營業規模的穩定增長，適當加大終端促銷費用等營銷資源投入。公司積極拓展抖音等新興渠道，增加費用投入和品牌推廣，推動新興渠道銷售收入增速迅速增長。公司在內部採取了積極的措施嚴格控制各項費用，22H1 管理費用率、財務費用率同比共下降0.41pct。此外，22H1 貨幣資金整體收益、政府補助同比均有增加，對利潤的增長產生積極的作用。從成本端看，目前原材料價格顯著走低，下半年有望對公司利潤做出正向貢獻。投資建議：公司短期受宏觀環境的影響，單季度外銷顯著下降，內銷得益於線上尤其是新興渠道的貢獻實現平穩增長。展望下半年，公司外銷代工收入由於宏觀環境的波動或將承壓，內銷在新興渠道高增速的帶動下有望繼續向好；利潤端，當前原材料價格下行，對公司利潤或有一定的正向貢獻；疊加公司直營比例上升及銷售結構優化，利潤端或將繼續增長。根據公司的業績快報，我們適當下調了外銷代工的收入並上調了整體的毛利率，預計22-24 年淨利潤為21.2、24.3、27.4 億元（前值為22.7、25.7、28.7億元），對應估值分別為20.3x、17.7x、15.7x，維持“買入”評級。風險提示：新品銷售不及預期，原材料價格上漲風險，海外需求不及預期，業績快報僅為初步合算數據，具體數據以公司披露的半年報為準。
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