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福鞍股份(603315):擬低價併購石墨化優質資產 加速擴產業績可期
格隆匯 07-21 00:00
報吿導讀 公司發佈公吿:1)確認天全福鞍交易對價(36 億元對價收購100%股權,對應23 年業績目標7.2 倍PE),其中定增股份支付29.35 億元,佔比81.53%,現金支付6.65 億元,佔比18.47%;2)為滿足現金對價6.65 億元,擬定向募集10.65 億元,剩下4 億元用於補充流動資金,收購不以配套融資成功為前提;3)公司與被收購方全體股東簽署《業績補償協議》,按照承諾協議天全福鞍22-24 扣非歸母淨利潤不低於1.88/4.94/5.60 億元。 投資要點 石墨化產能投放節奏提速,長協鎖定負極龍頭出貨快速增長可期天全福鞍規劃14 萬噸產能,目前已取得天全全部產線的6 萬噸能評環評指標,蘆山一二期已經取得能評批覆/環評批覆中,公司目前已投產天全一二期共4 萬噸產能(二期3月投產,爬坡中),天全三期在建即將於22 年9 月投產,蘆山一二期各4 萬噸籌建中將分別於23 年1 月和4 月投產。按照規劃產能投放節奏,23 年4 月即完成14 萬噸產能建設,大幅提速。公司與貝特瑞、凱金簽署長期合作協議23 年鎖定年化產能接近8 萬噸,與杉杉、翔豐華等合作良好,產能消化無憂出貨快速增長可期。 石墨化單噸盈利水平穩中向上,行業景氣延續並表盡享量利齊升盈利方面,22 年第一季度負極石墨化加工單價為22219 元/噸,單位成本13755 元/噸,單噸淨利6698 元/噸,相比21 年4414 元/噸大幅提升,主要系石墨化供需緊張帶來加工費持續上漲,後續伴隨新增產能投放規模優勢凸顯以及原材料價格企穩,預計22 年第二至四季度單位盈利水平有望穩中向上。能耗雙控、冬奧會、疫情防控影響下石墨化供給受限景氣度持續,公司石墨化資產並表後將大幅度提振業績,量利齊升確定性強。 業績承諾綁定核心技術管理團隊,彰顯公司轉型負極的決心公司與被收購方簽署《業績補償協議》,天全福鞍業績不及承諾金額的部分公司將通過回購的方式沒收承諾方對應的股權(以20.94 元/股計算),在業績承諾期內對承諾人的股權設置了鎖定期協議,該機制綁定了天全核心管理及技術團隊,建立健全了長效激勵機制,可充分調動人員積極性,反映了公司向負極石墨化轉型的決心。 盈利預測及估值 公司是積極轉型新能源賽道的多元化企業,負極材料開啟第二增長曲線。石墨化行業供給仍緊缺、天全福鞍與優質客户建立長期合作關係,後續產能有望有效消化(預計22-24年銷量分別為5、11、14 萬噸)。考慮石墨化並表,我們上調22-24 年公司歸母淨利潤預測至6.09、10.55、13.13 億元(上調前為1.94、2.96、4.16 億元);本次定增及資產收購不以配套融資成功為前提,僅考慮發行股份支付(對價29.35 億元、發行價20.94 元/股),本次發行後公司總股本4.48 億股,對應7 月20 日股價總市值為127.05 億元,對應22-24的PE 分別為21、12、10 倍,維持“買入”評級。 風險提示 全球新能車銷量不及預期;負極及石墨化產能建設不及預期;負極行業競爭加劇。
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