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中聯重科(000157):擬回購A股用於員工激勵 彰顯長期發展信心
公司動態公司近況2022 年7 月20 日,公司公吿擬使用自有資金以集中競價方式回購A股,回購數量不低於總股本2.5%,不超過5%,回購後全部用於員工持股計劃。自3 月發佈H股回購計劃後,公司再次發佈A股回購計劃,我們認為顯示了管理層對公司中長期發展的信心。評論自2019 年後再度計劃回購A股。公司2015 年以來曾兩度公佈A股回購方案,分別是2016 年6 月計劃回購A股3,885 萬股(佔總股本0.51%),2019 年5 月計劃回購A股3.9 億股(佔總股本5%)。本次公司計劃自2022年7 月20 日起的12 個月內,以不超過9.19 元的價格回購2.17-4.34 億股,佔總股本2.5-5%。按照價格上限計算,回購資金不超過39.88 億元。回購股份將於三年內全部用於員工持股計劃,否則剩餘部分將註銷。我們預計公司未來或同時進行A/H股回購。2022 年3 月公司公吿了擬回購H股的一般性授權,並於6 月股東大會中投票通過。3 月公吿中,公司表示擬回購不超過公司已發行H股的10%,截至7 月21 日,公司已發行H股為15.82 億股。公司此前公佈的三年股東回報規劃顯示,在規定條件下,2020-2022 年每年每股分紅不低於0.317 元,以該值計算,截至7 月21日,公司H股股息回報率約9%。我們預計3Q22 行業降幅有望收窄。近期公司公吿了1H22 業績預吿,預計1H22 歸母淨利潤同比下降63-67%至16.06-18.06 億元,顯示1H22 行業景氣度偏低。根據工程機械工業協會,1H22 我國挖掘機、裝載機銷量同比減少36%/23%,1-5 月汽車起重機銷量同比減少58%。從下游需求來看,1H22 基建固定資產投資同比增加9.3%,而地產開工同比減少34.4%,其中4-6 月降幅在40-45%左右。2022 年1-5 月新增人民幣中長期貸款同比負增長,6 月單月增速回正。往前看,伴隨基數輪動及復工復產推進,我們預計3Q22 起行業降幅有望收窄,我們認為後續需觀察新增中長期貸款增長持續性和地產開工恢復情況。盈利預測與估值我們維持2022/2023 年EPS預測0.50/0.58 元,公司當前A股股價對應2022/2023 年12.0x/10.5x P/E,H股股價對應2022/2023 年7.0x/6.1xP/E。我們維持A/H目標價6.97 元/6.09 港元,對應2022 年13.9x/10.3xPE,2023 年12.1x/9.0x PE,有15%/50%上行空間,維持跑贏行業評級。風險地產開工持續低迷;行業價格競爭延續;下游回款不及預期。
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