萬豐奧威(002085):“雙引擎”引領公司持續增長 鎂合金業務高成長性即將凸顯
近期,公司發佈2022H1 業績預吿,預計上半年實現歸母淨利潤3.26億元-3.58 億元,同比增長39.96%-53.60%。 汽配輕量化加通航飛機制造打造公司“雙引擎”,原材料穩中有降助力公司利潤高速增長。公司成立於2001 年,最初主要從事汽車、摩托車鋁合金輪的研發、生產與銷售,2006 年上市之後逐步併入大股東優質資產,現今已經形成了汽配輕量化加通航飛機制造的“雙引擎” 驅動戰略。公司主要原材料為鎂鋁合金,當前鎂合金價格較去年下半年高點下降60%左右,鋁合金價格較去年下半年高點下降30%左右,我們認為在今年原材料價格穩中有降的大背景下,公司利潤有望高速增長。 鋁合金輪轂基本盤穩步提升,鎂合金產品應用跟隨行業快速增長。鋁合金輪轂作為公司汽配輕量化業務的基本盤,受益於以比亞迪和長城為首的國內主機廠客户崛起,鋁合金輪轂銷量及全球市佔率有望穩步提升。汽配輕量化業務主要看點在於鎂合金單車用量的提升,當前全球單車用鎂量僅為2.1kg/輛,歐美單車用鎂量僅為5kg/輛,仍處於較低位水平。在汽車輕量化大趨勢下,單車用鎂量有望逐步提升,公司全資子公司萬豐鎂瑞丁在全球處於行業龍頭地位,車用鎂合金產品已經有豐富儲備,公司有望在行業快速成長過程中充分受益。 通航飛機制造業務利潤持續釋放,長期看好中國低空開放帶來的巨大成長空間。公司通航飛機制造業務主要載體是萬豐飛機工業,全球第三大固定翼活塞式通航飛機制造商,市場佔有率15.4%,較第二名僅少0.9 個百分點。當前萬豐飛機工業營業收入主要來自歐美等發達經濟體,伴隨着海外私人飛機佔比提升和授權業務的展開,通航飛機制造業務的利潤持續增長有保障。此外,中國近十年來有持續出台低空開放試點改革,且在2019 年3 月的全國兩會上,通用航空首次在政府工作報吿中提出,我們認為未來低空開放是必然趨勢,公司作為行業領軍者有望充分受益。 【投資建議】 公司“雙引擎 ”驅動戰略:成為“全球汽車金屬輕量化推動者”和“通用飛機創新制造企業的全球領跑者”,持續引領公司增長。我們認為在汽車輕量化的大趨勢下,公司有望持續受益,並且今年鎂鋁合金價格穩中有降,對公司利潤將會有很好的正反饋。預計公司2022-2024 年營業收入分別為153.35/181.23/212.63 億元,歸母淨利潤分別為7.45/9.42/11.61 億元,對應EPS 分別為0.34/0.43/0.53 元/股,對應PE 分別為20.54/16.26/13.18倍。考慮到高端輕量化產品鎂合金壓鑄件營收和利潤水平雙釋放,以及通航飛機制造業務未來的巨大成長空間,給予公司2022 年30 倍PE,對應市值為224 億元,6 個月內目標價為10.22 元,給予“買入”評級。 【風險提示】 下游客户需求不及預期; 新能源汽車業務拓展不及預期; 原材料價格波動風險。
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