《大行報告》花旗料港銀接近今年底將上調最優惠利率 估本港年底或與內地「通關」
花旗發表全球經濟及策略報告,警告全球經濟有五成機會陷入衰退,花旗將今明兩年全球經濟增長預測分別降至2.9%及2.6%。就本港方面,鑑於經濟的不確定性上升,該行已軟化對香港復甦路徑預期,在美聯儲加息預期「鷹派」下,香港及中國股市表現依然疲弱下,預計資金將持續外流。
該行估計金管局可能透過從外匯基金票據據釋放資金,並為本港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)的上漲提供一些緩衝。該行預計本港銀行將在接近今年年年底時提高最優惠利率,此將影響抵押貸款支付和房地產市場。
花旗預計香港在第三季度對國際旅行限制或將進一步放寬,但若本地疫情再度升溫可能會拖累經濟復甦勢頭。該行料本港只有與內地重新開放邊境(料可能在今年底),經濟才會出現更顯著的復甦。
該行補充,西方國家對經濟衰退的擔憂導致全球需求放緩,以及中國經濟增長面臨更多潛在下行風險,也可能對香港經濟構成中期風險。
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