東亞(00023.HK)料美國7月及9月各至少加息75及50個基點
東亞銀行(00023.HK)相信,美國今輪加息週期的步伐將較以往三個週期為快,7月及9月聯儲局議息會議預料將分別至少加息75及50個基點,11月及12月則分別再加25個基點,至年底時聯邦基金利率預計將至少升至3.25%至3.5%。
東亞銀行首席經濟師蔡永雄表示,當銀行體系結餘會回落1,000億元,港美息差會收窄,港匯觸及弱方兌換保證的頻率將減慢。他認為,當一個月本港銀行同業拆息升至1.5厘,本港銀行就有機會上調最優惠利率(P),預料港銀會在第三季首次上調P。
東亞銀行首席投資策略師李振豪表示,雖然預期全球經濟增長的步伐不一,但股票市場仍可望向好,美股在過去十次中期大選年,標普500指數平均表現呈現U型,預期第三季可見底反彈,第四季表現將持續向好,內地股市的表現亦將得益於政府明確的刺激經濟措施。
東亞表示,歷史數據顯示,美股表現往往走在經濟及通脹數據之前,標普500指數底部會在經濟衰退一年前出現,過了加息初段,增長型股份表現會優於價值型股份,歐美滯脹風險正在升溫,其中歐洲風險較高,亞洲通脹預期及加息壓力相對G7國家為低,經濟前景較其他主要經濟體為佳,支持亞洲債市表現。
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