《大行報告》麥格理下調水泥股目標價 海螺水泥(00914.HK)納入沽售名單
麥格理發表研究報告指,截至7月14日止中國買家拒付房貸事件已漫延至超過230個項目,涉及河南、湖南、河北等20多個地區,地方政府已迅速行動,包括要求銀行應承擔主要責任等。
該行表示,即使在事件發生前,本月首星期30大重點城市的合約銷售額已按年下跌44%,認為中國房地產市場去產能的負面結構性影響被低估,或將導致水泥產能過剩的時間延長。
由於每噸水泥毛利已降至39元人民幣,低於2015至2016年的歷史低位,該行預期海螺水泥(00914.HK)及華潤水泥(01313.HK)今年盈利將面對風險,將海螺水泥今年第二季的每噸水泥毛利預測下調19元人民幣,全年亦下調24元人民幣,華潤水泥次季及全年每噸水泥毛利預測則削減23港元及17港元,並將海螺水泥列入麥格理沽售名單。
麥格理將海螺水泥目標價由28元下調至25元,並將2022至2024年每股盈利預測下調18%、9%及10%,同時將華潤水泥2022至2024年每股盈利預測下調20%、15%及11%,目標價下調17%至4.23元,評級均為「跑輸大市」。
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